The Kenya Meteorological Department released a 24-hour weather forecast on September 23, 2026, warning of enhanced rainfall in 16 counties across the country. The forecast, valid from 9 pm on September 23 to 9 pm on September 24, indicates that Western Kenya will experience significant rainfall. Counties expected to receive rainfall include Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Bomet, Nakuru, Busia, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nyandarua, and Nyeri.
According to the forecast, Kakamega will experience light showers and thunderstorms in the morning, with moderate showers and thunderstorms expected in the evening. Kericho faces a similar pattern, with light showers in the morning and moderate showers and thunderstorms by evening. In Kisumu, light showers are forecast for the morning, with temperatures ranging between a high of 29°C and a low of 20°C. Residents in these counties are advised to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety.
The Kenya Meteorological Department also warned of strong southerly to south-easterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.5 m/s) over parts of northern and coastal counties, including Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu counties. Mandera is forecast to record the highest maximum temperature at 35°C, with a minimum of 25°C. These strong winds may cause disruptions and damage to properties.
In the north-eastern and eastern regions, most areas, including Isiolo, Meru, Kitui, Machakos, and Makueni, are expected to see partly cloudy conditions in the morning followed by sunny intervals into the afternoon and evening, with no significant rainfall anticipated. However, residents in these areas should remain vigilant, as weather conditions can change rapidly.
Nyandarua county, listed under areas expected to receive rainfall, shows a forecast minimum temperature of 9°C, the lowest in the data set, with a maximum of 21°C and a chance of light showers in the evening. The county's residents should take precautions to protect themselves and their properties from the potential effects of the rainfall.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing this year at 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027. This has raised concerns about the potential impacts on the country's weather patterns, including increased rainfall and flash floods.
A national risk assessment produced by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) identified specific threats in each affected region, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, and damage to critical infrastructure. Residents in the affected counties are advised to remain alert and take necessary precautions to minimize the risks associated with these potential hazards.
Key points
- The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of enhanced rainfall in 16 counties across the country on September 24.
- Strong southerly to south-easterly winds exceeding 25 knots are forecast over parts of northern and coastal counties.
- The probability of a strong El Niño developing this year is 81%, with a 97% likelihood that its effects will extend into early 2027.
