The World Bank has released its summer 2026 economic report for Tunisia, predicting that the country's economy will grow by 2.3% in 2026. According to the report, Tunisia's economy has shown positive indicators since 2025, with a 2.7% growth in real GDP in 2025 and 2.4% growth on an annual basis during the first half of 2026. Despite facing structural challenges and external pressures, the country's economy has recovered, surpassing its pre-COVID-19 levels.
The World Bank report highlights the varying performance of different economic sectors. The food industry, mechanical and electrical industries, hotels, and restaurants have contributed to growth, while the fuel, textile, and finance sectors have declined recently. In the first half of 2026, agricultural activity increased by 6.4%, and the food industry grew by 8.9%, while energy, textile, and construction activities decreased by 3.9%, 3.3%, and 1.6%, respectively.
The World Bank expects Tunisia's economic growth to average 2.1% between 2027 and 2028 in the absence of sustainable structural reforms. The report also forecasts a trade deficit of 4.1% of GDP in 2026 and a budget deficit of around 6% of GDP, with public debt expected to reach 84.2% of GDP before gradually declining to 81.9% by 2028.
The labor market has shown improvement, with the unemployment rate declining to 14.9% during the second quarter of 2026. However, the World Bank notes that this decrease largely reflects changes in labor market participation rather than the creation of new job opportunities. Inflation has also continued to decline, reaching 5.1% in July 2026, down from its peak of 10.4% in February 2023.
The World Bank has identified water scarcity as a significant economic and structural challenge for Tunisia. The report notes that the country's water resources are limited, with renewable freshwater resources per capita below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters per year. The report warns that the economic losses due to water scarcity could reach 6.4% of GDP by 2050 if no action is taken to address the imbalance between water supply and demand.
To address the water crisis, the World Bank recommends investing in the water sector, which can directly contribute to job creation. The report also suggests that Tunisia's "Water Plan 2050" provides a strategic foundation, but the challenge lies in translating this plan into sustainable results. The World Bank proposes several measures, including updating the water code, establishing a legal framework for the reuse of treated wastewater, and improving the performance of water service providers.
Key points
- The World Bank forecasts 2.3% economic growth for Tunisia in 2026.
- Water scarcity is a significant economic and structural challenge for Tunisia, with potential economic losses of 6.4% of GDP by 2050.
- The World Bank recommends investing in the water sector to address the crisis and create jobs.
