The US economy has experienced a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Americans expressing dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs. Despite low unemployment rates and overall consumer spending resilience, voters have drawn a direct connection between President Donald Trump's policies and their financial anxieties. The economy, which was a key factor in the 2024 election, has become a major concern for voters, with many feeling that their financial situation has not improved.
Inflation has been a major contributor to voter discontent, with the cost of living increasing significantly since 2021. Although inflation had decreased in the last year of Joe Biden's presidency, it was not enough to convince voters to give Democrats another chance in 2024. The anger about high living costs has continued throughout Trump's return to office, with voters blaming Trump for the poor state of financial affairs. Trump's signature policies, including tariffs, lax AI regulation, and strict immigration restrictions, have been linked to the increased financial anxieties.
The US economy showed signs of improvement in January, with the best month of job gains since 2024 and manufacturing jobs turning positive for the first time in 14 months. However, the situation changed dramatically after the US went to war with Iran, leading to a surge in oil prices, diesel prices, and gas prices. The increased fuel prices have added $1,150 in costs for the average US household since the start of the war, according to Brown University researchers. This has had a significant impact on voters, who are particularly irate about high fuel prices.
The impact of high fuel prices has been felt across the economy, with bond yields and mortgage rates surging. After three straight years of paycheck gains outpacing price hikes, the trend has reversed, with rebounding inflation eating into workers' take-home pay. The average American's real pay has shrunk since Trump has been back in office. Americans have fond memories of the economy under Trump's first term, but Trump's marks on the economy are now worse than Biden's, with a net approval rating of -46 points, according to an October CNN poll.
Trump's policies, including the war in Iran, have been linked to the increased costs of living for many Americans. The failure to extend Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies in 2025 sent monthly Obamacare premiums up 58%, on average, for this year. Electricity costs have jumped 8.7% during Trump's second term, and Trump's immigration policies and tariffs have raised the cost of auto repairs and homebuilders' costs. Trump's tariffs have added $820 in taxes for the average American household this year, according to the Tax Foundation.
Economists have attributed the poor state of financial affairs to Trump's policies, with Steven Durlauf, an economist at the University of Chicago, stating that "inflation has been badly managed by Trump." Voters have placed responsibility for the economy on the administration's policies, leading to a significant shift in voter sentiment. The K-shaped economy has also contributed to the problem, with wealthier Americans being more immune to rising costs than less-affluent Americans who are increasingly living paycheck to paycheck.
The lack of available options to achieve the American Dream has also been a major concern, with a massive undersupply of childcare options and housing pricing out many people. The job market, although still relatively strong, is no longer booming like it was in the immediate post-pandemic years. Many Americans feel stuck, with applications for jobs often going unanswered. The economy has become a major issue for voters, with many feeling that they have been left behind.
Key points
- The US economy has experienced a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Americans expressing dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs.
- Inflation has been a major contributor to voter discontent, with the cost of living increasing significantly since 2021.
- Trump's policies, including the war in Iran, have been linked to the increased costs of living for many Americans.
