Uganda has signaled the withdrawal of its additional troops from Somalia, a move that has raised fresh questions about Mogadishu's ability to sustain military gains against Al Shabaab. The announcement was made by Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who stated that the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) had begun withdrawing from Somalia. This comes barely days after President Yoweri Museveni and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud held talks on the future of Kampala's military deployment.
The announcement comes amid growing concern in Kampala over Somalia's fractured political leadership and its implications for the campaign against Al Shabaab. The Islamist insurgency continues to exploit divisions between the federal government and regional administrations. At their meeting at State House Entebbe, Museveni and Mohamud discussed Somalia's deteriorating security environment, Uganda's military presence, and the political disagreements threatening to weaken the fight against Al Shabaab.
For Uganda, the challenge is increasingly one of political cohesion as much as military capacity. Kampala's position is that gains against Al Shabaab will be difficult to consolidate without a common front among Somalia's political leadership. Museveni drew parallels with other African conflicts in which political exclusion and sectarian divisions have fueled instability. He emphasized the need for Somalia's leaders to unite and defeat the insurgency.
The divisions have become acute in South West State, where forces aligned with ousted regional leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, popularly known as Laftagareen, captured several key towns in the Bay region during offensives in October. Mogadishu has accused South West State politicians of collaborating with Al Shabaab, allegations regional leaders deny. The confrontation has further exposed tensions between the federal government and regional administrations, including Jubaland and Puntland.
At the heart of the standoff are disagreements over elections, proposed constitutional amendments, presidential term extensions, and the distribution of authority over security forces. The disputes have complicated efforts to establish a coherent national campaign against Al Shabaab at a time when Somali forces are expected to assume greater responsibility for security. Uganda has maintained two distinct military deployments in Somalia: troops serving under the African Union-led Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (Aussom), and an additional brigade-size contingent deployed under a bilateral agreement with Mogadishu.
The potential departure of Uganda's additional contingent would add pressure on Somalia's security establishment at a particularly sensitive moment in the campaign. Mohamud thanked Museveni for Uganda's continued military contribution and expressed hope that the UPDF would remain longer to help achieve full pacification and lasting stability. His appeal reflects Mogadishu's concern over the implications of losing an important military partner before Somali forces are fully prepared to take over security responsibilities.
The proposed withdrawal will test not only the operational readiness of Somali forces but also the federal government's capacity to secure cooperation from regional administrations. Without that political accommodation, the departure of foreign troops could expose the fragility of military gains made. Uganda's military commitment to Somalia dates back to 2007, giving it one of the longest-standing roles among the country's external security partners.
Key points
- Uganda has begun withdrawing its additional troops from Somalia, raising concerns about Mogadishu's ability to sustain military gains against Al Shabaab.
- The withdrawal comes amid growing concern over Somalia's fractured political leadership and its implications for the campaign against Al Shabaab.
- The sustainability of military gains depends on the ability of Somalia's institutions to function cohesively.
