U.S. scholar Robert Lawrence Kuhn has said that the United States and China have different motivations for seeking a more stable relationship, but both stand to benefit from increased predictability. In a recent interview with Xinhua, Kuhn emphasized that constructive strategic stability is crucial for both nations, despite their differences. He noted that stability does not imply a disappearance of differences, but rather a need to manage them effectively. Kuhn's comments come as the two nations navigate various challenges, including economic and security concerns.
According to Kuhn, the concept of "constructive strategic stability" is significant, as it provides a framework for handling bilateral affairs across various fields. He highlighted the importance of the word "stability," which implies predictability and a trajectory that can be forecasted. Kuhn also emphasized the significance of "constructive," which acknowledges that the relationship requires effort to manage disagreements. For Washington, a stable relationship is crucial, particularly in the face of a fierce midterm election environment and multiple international challenges.
China, on the other hand, places a premium on a stable external environment as it pursues its economic and development goals. Kuhn noted that the benefits of a more predictable relationship between the U.S. and China would extend beyond the two countries, with the world also having a stake in their interactions. He cited issues such as artificial intelligence, climate change, public health, and the fight against drug trafficking, where cooperation between the two nations is essential.
Kuhn cautioned against confusing stability with reconciliation, emphasizing that the immediate objective should be to prevent disputes from repeatedly escalating. Rather than expecting a sudden breakthrough, the focus should be on managing differences and creating a framework for constructive engagement. He noted that an upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington could be consequential, even without dramatic breakthroughs.
Kuhn highlighted the importance of personal relationships between leaders, noting that Trump places considerable weight on these interactions. A visibly constructive meeting, he said, sends a signal through government and business circles that legitimate engagement with the other country is acceptable. This is particularly important, as political uncertainty can discourage economic and social ties.
The scholar also emphasized the significance of people-to-people exchanges, noting that sustained engagement is crucial for long-term cooperation. He cited concerns among scholars, healthcare professionals, and cultural institutions that engagement could be interpreted as "aiding the other side." Clear support from the top can help create political space for such contacts, Kuhn added.
Kuhn concluded by emphasizing the importance of people-to-people engagement, stating that it is the single most important thing the world can do on a long-term basis. He expressed optimism that a more predictable relationship between the U.S. and China can be achieved, even as differences are managed.
Key points
- U.S. and China have different reasons for seeking a stable relationship but both gain from predictability.
- Stability in U.S.-China relations implies predictability and a manageable trajectory.
- People-to-people exchanges are crucial for long-term cooperation between the two nations.
