Tunisian Banking Sector Sees 42% Increase in Index Over Nine Months

The Tunisian banking sector has experienced significant growth over the past nine months, with the banking index rising by 42.15% as of September 30, 2026, according to the Tunis Stock Exchange. This growth is notable, but the sources of the profits and the implications for the sector are being viewed differently by various stakeholders. The banking index is comprised of 12 listed banks, which have seen their combined net banking product (PNB) increase by only 5.8% to 5,747 million Tunisian dinars (MDT).

Two stockbrokers, Amen Invest and Tunisie Valeurs, have released recent notes on the sector, offering differing perspectives on the growth. Amen Invest, a subsidiary of Amen Group, highlights the solid fundamentals of the sector, citing a dynamic beneficiary solid market. Tunisie Valeurs, a subsidiary of BIAT, also notes the sector's solid fundamentals, but cautions that the growth may be attributed to a "legitimate catch-up" of a previously undervalued market. Both firms recommend buying shares in certain banks, with Amen Invest citing BIAT, Amen Bank, BT, and BNA as top performers.

The French Treasury's economic services in Tunis have a different view, attributing the 5% increase in net profit of resident banks mainly to income from their investment portfolio, driven by Treasury bills. The French note highlights that 30.8% of the banks' exposure is to the public sector, which has contributed significantly to their profits. This exposure includes 33,328 MDT in state securities, representing 19.9% of their net assets.

The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has also weighed in on the sector, with Governor Fethi Zouhaier Nouri stating that the fundamentals of the sector remain solid. However, he also noted that the sector must shift from prudence to commitment and from resilience to growth. The BCT's annual report on banking supervision in 2025 highlights a shift in credit, with a slowdown in private and household credit, while credit to the state and public enterprises has increased.

The BCT's report also notes that non-performing loans are around 15%, up from 14.6% the previous year. The report highlights the conservation of equity as a key tool, with dividend distribution increasing to 50.6% in 2025, representing 899 MDT. The BCT's Governor has expressed concern about the quality of assets and the need for banks to transform savings into productive investments.

A closer look at the sector's financials reveals that the interest margin, a key component of banking business, has decreased by 14.9% or 554 MDT. This decrease has been offset by a 37.3% increase in investment portfolio income, dominated by state securities, which now account for 33.5% of the PNB. The growth in Treasury bill income is between 40.5% and 41.4%, according to BCT documents.

As the sector continues to evolve, a key question is whether the current performance can be sustained. The BCT has increased its net claims on the state by 5,426 MDT since January, while banks and other deposit institutions have only increased theirs by 1,282 MDT. If this trend continues, it could impact the banks' revenue from public debt. The Governor has warned that any performance disconnected from fundamentals will eventually be undermined.

Key points

• The Tunisian banking sector's 42% index growth in nine months has raised questions about the origins of profits and the sustainability of the performance.
• Stakeholders, including stockbrokers and the Central Bank, have differing views on the sector's growth and prospects.
• The sector's reliance on state securities and Treasury bills has contributed significantly to its profits, but may not be sustainable in the long term.