Tunisia is currently experiencing weather conditions that are prolonging the impression of summer, but this is expected to change with the evolution of the atmospheric situation over the next few weeks. According to Amer Bahba, a researcher in climatology and specialist in natural risks, weekly models, particularly European models, indicate the possibility of a decrease in atmospheric pressure between October 5 and 19, favoring the installation of more disturbed conditions over Tunisia.
This change in weather could lead to the formation of clouds carrying rain, likely to affect a large part of the northern and central regions. A decrease in temperatures towards seasonal values, or even locally below, is also expected. The conditions could thus become more autumnal, particularly in the mountainous regions of the west, with a more pronounced feeling of coolness during the nights and mornings.
The beginning of October is still marked by a certain instability, particularly in western Tunisia, notably in Kasserine, Gafsa, Sidi Bouzid, Kairouan, and Siliana. Flows of oueds have already been observed in certain areas, including the Oued El Baïr in Kasserine. According to Amer Bahba, storm cells accompanied by localized rain could still appear, mainly during the afternoons.
The coastal regions could also receive some precipitation, but their extension and intensity remain uncertain. This short-term evolution does not, however, call into question the climatic trend announced for autumn. In its seasonal forecast bulletin published on September 29, the National Institute of Meteorology (INM) forecasts average temperatures above normal climatic values for the period October-November-December 2026 over the entire country.
For October, the reference normals 1991-2020 are situated between 17 and 23 °C in the north and center and between 22 and 24 °C in the south. The INM also emphasizes that the models do not show a dominant pluviometric signal at the national level, even if certain regions could experience slightly higher than normal precipitation.
This forecast is part of an exceptional climatic year. The INM indicated that summer 2026 was the hottest ever recorded in Tunisia since 1950, with an average temperature 2.9 °C above the 1991-2020 normal climate. The month of August notably recorded a national average of 32.3 °C, or 3.4 °C above its normal.
The expected situation in October should therefore be contrasted: episodes of coolness, rain, and instability could succeed each other, without however preventing the month from remaining globally warmer than normal.
Key points
- A decrease in atmospheric pressure is expected between October 5 and 19, favoring the installation of more disturbed conditions over Tunisia.
- Average temperatures are forecasted to be above normal climatic values for the period October-November-December 2026 over the entire country.
- Summer 2026 was the hottest ever recorded in Tunisia since 1950, with an average temperature 2.9 °C above the 1991-2020 normal climate.
