According to financial expert Bassem Naifer, Tunisia's financial situation may improve in 2027. The expected decrease in public debt service, estimated at around 20 billion dinars, could alleviate pressure on state finances. This would provide more opportunities to fund economic and social priorities. Naifer made these comments in an interview with the Tunisian Africa Press Agency on October 4.
The decrease in debt service could allow the state to have a greater capacity for action. This comes after several years of high financing needs. According to the Ministry of Finance, the public debt service was 20.75 billion dinars in 2023. It increased to 24.81 billion dinars in 2024 and 24.44 billion dinars in 2025. The 2026 finance law allocates 23.05 billion dinars for debt service.
If Naifer's predictions are correct, the debt service in 2027 could return to a level close to that of 2023. However, this improvement is relative, as the burden remains significant compared to available budget resources. The structure of Tunisia's debt has evolved significantly. The public debt is expected to reach 156.7 billion dinars in 2026, representing 83.4% of the GDP.
The domestic debt now accounts for 64% of the total debt expected in 2026, up from 47.2% in 2023. Pressure on Tunisia's finances does not only come from debt. Operating expenses, such as salaries and subsidies, continue to account for a significant portion of the budget. There are also uncertainties related to international energy and raw material markets.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russian-Ukrainian war have driven up hydrocarbon prices, increasing Tunisia's energy bill. The increase in oil and gas prices may limit the benefits of the decrease in debt service. Naifer recommends taking into account a higher Brent price for 2027 budget assumptions than in 2026 forecasts.
Naifer expects maintenance of a high level of support spending due to the state's social orientations and high prices of certain raw materials, such as cereals. The 2027 budget will have to balance development ambitions and constraints. Tunisia's financial situation remains fragile despite signs of improvement.
The government will have to manage these challenges while trying to improve the country's financial situation. The next finance law should reflect these developments and provide a framework for sustainable economic growth. Key priorities will include managing debt, controlling operating expenses, and securing funding for essential projects.
Key points
- The expected decrease in public debt service in 2027 could provide more opportunities to fund economic and social priorities.
- The structure of Tunisia's debt has evolved significantly, with domestic debt now accounting for 64% of the total debt expected in 2026.
- Geopolitical tensions and high raw material prices may limit the benefits of the decrease in debt service.
