KwaZulu-Natal, a province in South Africa, is bracing for historic and unpredictable local elections. The ANC, which controls the majority of local councils, is struggling to complete basic administrative tasks and is haemorrhaging support. The party's principal challenger, the MK Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, is expected to perform strongly but is facing turmoil, including leadership instability and unpaid creditors.
The MK Party is also contending with questions about its ability to stage a credible manifesto launch in KwaZulu-Natal and mount an effective national campaign. The party has been embroiled in controversy surrounding its alleged links to South African men who were recruited to fight in the Russia-Ukraine war. These factors have contributed to an air of uncertainty in the lead-up to the 2026 local government elections.
The provincial government of KwaZulu-Natal could collapse due to an internal leadership battle within the National Freedom Party, which holds a single seat in the provincial legislature. This gives the NFP disproportionate influence over the coalition's survival. If the coalition collapses and a new majority is assembled in the legislature, the MK Party could potentially lead the province and control the multibillion-rand eThekwini Metro budget and Msunduzi.
Local elections in South Africa are typically determined by immediate community concerns rather than distant national or international events. The service-delivery data reinforce this point, with the collapse of basic municipal services, particularly water and sanitation, posing a measurable threat to KwaZulu-Natal's municipal governing parties. The Department of Water and Sanitation's Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports provide useful indicators of where public frustration could translate into electoral change.
The reports paint a bleak picture of water and sanitation services in KwaZulu-Natal, showing a system under severe strain, marked by unreliable drinking water quality, failing wastewater treatment works, ageing infrastructure, weak maintenance and extraordinarily high water losses. The data suggest that severe water-service failures could deepen the vulnerability of incumbent parties, particularly in districts such as uMkhanyakude, where more than 90% of treated water generates no revenue.
The MK Party may be poised to perform strongly in the local elections based on previous voting patterns overlaid with water failures. However, much will depend on which parties can mobilise their supporters on election day and whether the MK Party has the money and organisational capacity to run an effective campaign. If the party converts its 2024 support into control of major municipalities, it could redraw KwaZulu-Natal's political map.
Nevertheless, the MK Party's opaque leadership structures, questionable candidate choices and the elevation of figures facing allegations of corruption raise serious questions about how it would govern. As Jonathan Erasmus, director of the Community Action Network, notes, "Winning power by exploiting the failures of the ANC is one thing. Proving that it will not reproduce them is another."
Key points
- The ANC is haemorrhaging support in KwaZulu-Natal due to its struggles with basic administrative tasks and service delivery.
- The MK Party is facing turmoil, including leadership instability and unpaid creditors, which could impact its performance in the local elections.
- The collapse of basic municipal services, particularly water and sanitation, poses a significant threat to KwaZulu-Natal's municipal governing parties.
