South Africa's continued participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) has been revoked, sparking concerns among exporters and workers whose livelihoods depend on American orders. However, international relations strategist and lecturer Redi Tlhabi argues that the tone surrounding South Africa's place in Agoa has been overly dramatic, describing it as a "countdown to disaster" that inadequately captures the position of a diversified economy with substantial commercial relationships worldwide.
The United States Trade Representative reports that American goods imports from South Africa totaled $16.5 billion in 2025, but this figure represents the wider goods relationship and not the value of exports receiving Agoa preferences. Exclusion from Agoa alters the terms on which qualifying South African products enter the United States, but it does not prohibit trade, cancel every commercial relationship, or automatically render every exporter uncompetitive. The South African government has made its case, and the immediate question is how it should respond now that Washington's decision is confirmed.
The adverse decision warrants disappointment and a frank assessment of its consequences. The government has an obligation to explain precisely what has changed, including which preferences have been withdrawn, when the decision takes effect, and what additional costs exporters will face. Jobs most exposed to the changes need to be identified, and these answers should have shaped the public conversation before sweeping predictions of economic collapse took hold.
To mitigate the effects, several practical steps can be taken. Firstly, a credible assessment of the actual exposure should be published, developed jointly with industry and labor. This assessment must distinguish between exporters that may remain competitive and those that may face substantial losses, identifying communities where intervention is most urgent. A targeted adjustment program for viable businesses and affected workers can also be established.
The adjustment program could include temporary working-capital support, assistance with export certification, help finding new buyers, and measures to retain scarce skills. Government assistance should have clear conditions, time limits, and a realistic prospect of preserving production and employment. Diversification should be made an operational program, with sector-specific plans agreed upon with exporters to remove particular barriers and report publicly on progress.
African markets deserve sustained investment, alongside opportunities elsewhere, without pretending that any destination can immediately replace American demand. Domestic reform should also be treated as part of the response to the external shock. Every avoidable delay at a port, unreliable rail connection, or unnecessary regulatory cost weakens an exporter's ability to adjust. Commitments on logistics, electricity, and administrative efficiency should become measurable components of the adjustment plan.
The longer-term task is to develop a framework for US-South Africa relations that can withstand political disagreement. South Africa must stay the course and set out its objectives for a more durable commercial relationship, including clearer market-access arrangements, workable processes for resolving disputes, and sustained cooperation on investment and productive capacity.
Key points
- The South African government should publish a credible assessment of the actual exposure, developed jointly with industry and labor.
- A targeted adjustment program for viable businesses and affected workers should be established.
- Diversification should be made an operational program with sector-specific plans agreed upon with exporters.
