Researchers at the Climate Impact Lab of the University of Chicago have warned that the current super El Niño event may lead to a significant increase in global deaths. According to their report, extreme heat caused by the phenomenon could result in up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide over the next six months, ending in February 2027. This projection is based on an expected 44% rise in extremely hot days compared to an average year.
The countries likely to be most affected by the increased mortality rate are Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan. Nigeria is expected to experience around 31,400 additional deaths, followed by Indonesia with approximately 19,300 deaths, and Sudan with 17,600 deaths. These projections are based on the expected impact of the heatwave on these countries between September 2026 and February 2027.
The Sahel region in Africa, which includes Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Sudan, is expected to account for 66,800 additional deaths during the six-month period. Other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, are collectively expected to experience around 19,400 additional deaths. The researchers emphasize that these numbers may increase if the El Niño event extends into 2027.
The Climate Impact Lab describes the current El Niño event as a "message from the future," indicating that the world can expect such temperatures to become the norm in a few decades. The researchers stress that emergency response efforts should be directed towards areas of high priority to minimize heat-related deaths in the coming months.
According to Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago, this report enables policymakers to identify areas where emergency actions can be taken to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months. The researchers' findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate the impact of the super El Niño event.
The report's projections are based on an analysis of the potential effects of the El Niño event on global temperatures and mortality rates. The researchers used historical data and climate models to estimate the likely impact of the event on different countries and regions. Their findings suggest that the consequences of the super El Niño event could be severe and far-reaching.
The Climate Impact Lab's report emphasizes the need for policymakers and emergency responders to take proactive steps to prepare for the potential consequences of the super El Niño event. By identifying areas of high risk and taking targeted action, it may be possible to reduce the number of deaths and mitigate the impact of the event.
Key points
- Up to 451,000 additional deaths may occur globally by February 2027 due to the super El Niño event.
- Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan are expected to be among the countries most affected by the increased mortality rate.
- Emergency response efforts should be directed towards areas of high priority to minimize heat-related deaths in the coming months.
