Oil prices declined on Monday, October 5, 2026, as rising Middle East crude exports and a release of oil stocks by the Group of Seven nations boosted supplies. This development offset concerns about potential damage to Gulf oil infrastructure amid the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. At 0240 GMT, Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.12 a barrel, down 95 cents, or 1.03%.
The G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves. They also pledged to refrain from energy export restrictions, following pressure from US President Donald Trump. This move added to the increase in Middle Eastern crude exports, which rose above pre-war levels in four of the seven days in the final week of September, according to shipping data.
Despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the increased exports and G7 release of stocks have helped ease supply anxiety. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, noted that the G7 decision to tap strategic reserves is taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price. He also mentioned that Saudi export volumes are moving back toward pre-war levels, albeit at a higher cost and via less efficient routes.
The Houthis claimed they launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area of Saudi Arabia. This was in response to 50 Saudi-led air and missile strikes in Yemen in the past 12 hours. However, there was no confirmation from Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Yemen's Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government announced a major military campaign to recapture all areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.
Aramco unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows. Despite this, Brent prices remain above $100 per barrel due to persistent geopolitical tensions and an increase in attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf. ING analysts noted that these factors are contributing to the ongoing uncertainty in the oil market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) delayed a review that would determine 2027 oil output quotas for its members. This delay was due to the Iran war disrupting projects to expand capacity across the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty. Two sources close to the matter confirmed this development.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had far-reaching implications, including its impact on global oil prices and Ghana's fuel prices. In an interview published on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that Ukraine will intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries. These developments have contributed to the complex and volatile nature of the current oil market.
Key points
- Oil prices fell due to increased Middle East crude exports and a G7 release of emergency oil stocks.
- The G7 released 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves to boost supplies.
- OPEC+ delayed a review to determine 2027 oil output quotas due to the Iran war disrupting Middle East projects.
