As Nigeria's 2027 general elections approach, Ogun State has become a critical battleground, testing President Bola Tinubu's influence. The state remains a stronghold for Tinubu, but factors such as shifting local dynamics, fierce legal battles, growing voter skepticism, and the governorship candidate Solomon Adeola's indigeneship crisis threaten the APC's grip. The ongoing friction within the ruling party is seen as a self-inflicted wound triggered by the May 2026 governorship primary.
The APC's primary process took an unexpected turn when party leadership bypassed a wider democratic contest in favor of a consensus arrangement, allegedly influenced by President Tinubu. This move sidelined high-profile contenders, damaged party unity, and triggered widespread grassroots backlash. Some aspirants, who had nurtured their ambition for over four years, felt their aspirations were erased overnight, leading to a mass defection of APC stalwarts to the PDP.
The internal crisis breathed new life into the previously fractured state chapter of the PDP, which officially kicked off its 2027 campaign on September 9 with a massive rally at the Ake Palace Pavilion in Abeokuta. The PDP governorship candidate, Oladipupo Olatunde Adebutu, described his commitment to delivering the "dividends of democracy" to Ogun State as an unbreakable covenant. He vowed to overturn 15 years of hardship, neglect, and corruption under the APC through his "ITURA DE" governance blueprint.
Adebutu's administration will prioritize a seven-point agenda: security, local government financial autonomy, civil servants' welfare, infrastructural development, agricultural modernization, youth and women empowerment, and robust social services spanning healthcare and education. On the other side, the APC's consensus choice, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, serves as the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. However, his claim of paternal heritage in the Yewa/Awori region of Ogun West is complicated by controversy surrounding his ancestry.
Adebutu and fellow PDP chieftain Folake Marcus-Bello insist that Adeola's public service records point to Ekiti State as his origin. Following a legal threat from Adeola, the opposition publicly dared him to file a defamation lawsuit to settle his true indigene status in court. This rhetorical warfare intensified during a PDP campaign rally in the Odogbolu Local Government Area, where Adebutu welcomed a courtroom showdown and challenged Adeola to make good on his legal threats.
Beyond disputes over his roots, Adeola faces a new APC crisis as "suspended" aspirant Abayomi Hunye contests the May primary results to challenge Adeola's eligibility. Hunye has asked the Federal High Court in Abuja to review Adeola's past INEC forms to check if the state of origin he claimed while serving in Lagos matches his current Ogun State submissions. Meanwhile, Adeola received a legal reprieve last Friday when NNPP candidate Akinbola Rotham withdrew his eligibility lawsuit.
The rivalry between the governorship hopefuls intensifies, with supporters from both camps involved in unnecessary clashes. Armed hoodlums, alleged to be APC operatives, disrupted a PDP ward meeting in the Soyoye area of Abeokuta, assaulting supporters. As the election approaches, stakeholders, especially Ogun indigenes, have called on Adeola to come out clean on his real name, hometown, and state of origin, warning that gaining political power through deceits would not be condoned.
Key points
- President Bola Tinubu's influence in Ogun State is being tested ahead of the 2027 governorship election.
- The APC's chances in the election are threatened by internal crises, including disputes over the governorship candidate's indigeneship and allegations of corrupt practices.
- The PDP has capitalized on the APC's internal crisis, launching a strong campaign and gaining momentum ahead of the election.
