Economic experts have stated that Nigeria must sustain an annual compound growth rate of about 28 per cent over the next five years to achieve the federal government’s target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030. This was revealed at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture held in Alausa, Ikeja, Lagos, where business and management experts gathered to examine the country’s economic trajectory and required reforms. The lecture, themed “One Trillion Dollar Economy: What It Will Take Nigeria to Achieve the Goal,” aimed to provide insights into Nigeria’s economic prospects.
The keynote speaker, Mr Adetunji Oyebanji, president of the Chartered Institute of Directors (CIoD) Nigeria, provided a detailed analysis of the growth required. He noted that Nigeria’s 2025 nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is approximately $290.79 billion. To reach $1 trillion by 2030, the economy would need to grow at a compound annual rate of about 28.02 per cent between 2026 and 2030. Oyebanji emphasized that this calculation serves as a benchmark, rather than a forecast, highlighting the scale of expansion required to achieve the government’s target.
According to Oyebanji, the required growth rate significantly exceeds Nigeria’s historical economic performance. The country has consistently recorded real GDP growth below the 6–7 per cent annual level considered necessary for economies with high population growth to achieve broad-based improvements in income and living standards. This historical trend suggests that achieving the $1 trillion target will require substantial policy changes and institutional reforms.
Projections based on Nigeria’s historical growth patterns indicate that maintaining current trends would leave the country’s GDP well below the $1 trillion target by 2030. Oyebanji stressed that governance and institutional effectiveness are critical to accelerating economic growth. He identified credible macroeconomic management, policy consistency, regulatory certainty, efficient public institutions, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, infrastructure development, and an investment-friendly business environment as essential factors.
Oyebanji welcomed recent reforms in monetary policy, tax administration, capital market regulation, and petroleum sector governance, which have demonstrated that institutional reforms can improve economic confidence. However, he warned that such reforms must be sustained and deepened to have a lasting impact. The CIoD president also highlighted seven productive sectors that could drive sustained expansion: oil, gas and energy transition; agriculture and agro-processing; manufacturing and industrial development; technology and the digital economy; infrastructure; solid minerals; and services and creative industries.
To achieve the $1 trillion economy target, Oyebanji called for a shift from the export of raw materials to domestic processing and value addition. He suggested that Nigeria needs to become a refinery for much of West Africa, exporting refined products rather than raw materials. This approach would help create jobs, increase economic output, and boost the country’s GDP.
In conclusion, achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030 will require Nigeria to grow at an annual rate of 28 per cent over the next five years. This ambitious target necessitates far-reaching reforms, higher productivity, savings, investment, policy consistency, and stronger institutions. The experts at the 42nd Omolayole Management Lecture emphasised that a concerted effort from the government, businesses, and other stakeholders is essential to drive Nigeria’s economic growth and achieve the desired target.
Key points
- Nigeria needs to sustain an annual compound growth rate of 28 per cent to achieve a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
- The required growth rate significantly exceeds Nigeria’s historical economic performance.
- Seven productive sectors have been identified as drivers of sustained economic expansion: oil, gas and energy transition; agriculture and agro-processing; manufacturing and industrial development; technology and the digital economy; infrastructure; solid minerals; and services and creative industries.
