A recent study by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab has projected that the super El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027. The Sahel region is expected to bear the brunt of these deaths, with four Sahelian countries - Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad - projected to experience 66,800 extra deaths compared to a normal year.
Nigeria is projected to account for nearly half of these extra heat deaths in the Sahel region. The country's high poverty rates, with over 60% of Nigerians living below the national poverty line in 2025, and frequent power cuts that limit access to cooling, are cited as contributing factors. The study highlights the vulnerability of low-income populations in the region, who have limited access to electricity, with only 21% in Niger and 13% in Chad having power in 2024.
The Sahel region, a dry belt stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, spans approximately 3.05 million km² across seven countries and is projected to see the largest temperature anomalies during the El Niño period. The region's vulnerability to heat-related mortality is amplified by the limited resources available to cope with heat, particularly in impoverished Sahelian nations.
The study's authors recommend deploying proven interventions to mitigate the impact of the super El Niño. These measures include early-warning heat alerts, heat-action plans, cooling centers, hydration stations, and protections for outdoor workers during peak heat hours. The researchers have developed an Adaptation Inventory, a searchable map of climate-adaptation actions that can guide governments in prioritizing rapid, life-saving responses.
The Climate Impact Lab's study emphasizes the need for urgent action to protect vulnerable populations in the Sahel region. The researchers stress that heat-related mortality rises sharply where resources to cope with heat are scarce, highlighting the importance of addressing poverty and limited access to electricity in the region.
The projected heat deaths are expected to occur between September 2026 and February 2027, with Nigeria facing the highest burden. The study's findings underscore the need for governments and stakeholders to take proactive measures to prevent heat-related deaths in the region.
The study's recommendations, including the deployment of early-warning heat alerts and cooling centers, can help reduce the impact of the super El Niño on vulnerable populations. By prioritizing rapid, life-saving responses, governments can mitigate the effects of extreme heat in the Sahel region.
Key points
- The super El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027.
- Nigeria is projected to account for nearly half of the 66,800 extra heat deaths in the Sahel region.
- The study recommends deploying proven interventions, including early-warning heat alerts and cooling centers, to mitigate the impact of the super El Niño.
