Nigeria's earnings from Premium Motor Spirit exports have risen more than sixfold year-on-year to N998.5bn in the first half of 2026. This significant increase is attributed to the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery and disruptions to global supply routes. The country's petroleum trade has been reshaped, with African buyers accounting for N621.72bn, or more than 60 per cent, of the total value of Nigeria's PMS exports during the period.
In the second quarter alone, petrol exports were valued at N546.02bn, making PMS Nigeria's seventh-largest export commodity. It ranked behind crude oil, valued at N12.91tn; jet fuel; natural gas; urea; other petroleum gases; and gas oil. This marks a sharp reversal for Nigeria, which was still heavily dependent on imported petrol barely a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2025, PMS did not feature among the country's leading export products.
During the same quarter in 2025, Nigeria spent N1.76tn importing petrol. However, exports returned in the second quarter of that year at a modest N85.83bn. By the second quarter of 2026, the value of PMS exports had risen to N546.02bn, representing an increase of more than six times over the corresponding quarter of 2025. This significant growth is a result of the Dangote refinery's increased production and the country's improved refining position.
Analysts attributed the turnaround mainly to the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery, which has increased the volume of refined products available for domestic consumption and export. The refinery's improved operations and expanded output have led to an increase in PMS exports. Additionally, the war involving Iran and the resulting disruption of Middle Eastern supply routes created another opportunity for Nigerian petroleum products in the African market.
The disruptions affected shipping routes and raised concerns around supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil and refined-product shipments. As a result, African buyers that had previously depended heavily on suppliers such as the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Saudi Aramco, and Indian and Omani refiners began looking towards Nigeria. The shorter shipping distance from Nigeria made Dangote's products more attractive to buyers on the continent.
According to Abeeblahi Rufai, an investment research analyst, Nigeria's weak PMS exports in early 2025 were largely due to the absence of surplus products for foreign markets. He explained that Dangote's output was initially being absorbed by the domestic market, while operational challenges at the refinery also constrained production. However, Rufai noted that the situation changed as the refinery improved its operations and expanded output.
Tomiwa Adeniji, an analyst at CardinalStone Securities, said the rise in exports reflected a broader improvement in Nigeria's refining position. He noted that the country's refining capacity had increased from approximately 400,000 barrels. The growth in PMS exports is a positive development for Nigeria's economy, and the country's refining capacity is expected to continue improving in the coming years.
Key points
- Nigeria's petrol exports surged to N998.5bn in H1 2026, driven by Dangote refinery's increased production and global supply disruptions.
- African buyers accounted for over 60 per cent of Nigeria's PMS exports in H1 2026.
- Nigeria's refining capacity has increased from approximately 400,000 barrels.
