Kenya's export sector has experienced notable shifts in trade volumes between 2023 and 2026, primarily driven by a sharp increase in deliveries to the United States. According to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, there has been a remarkable upward trend in US-bound shipments, alongside steady growth in exports to Uganda. This growth has been particularly pronounced in the American market.
In 2023, Kenya's trade flows to the US stood at Sh28.05 billion. This figure saw a slight increase to Sh28.67 billion in 2024 before rising to Sh32.51 billion in 2025. The momentum significantly surged in the March to July 2026 period, with exports peaking at Sh63.59 billion. This represents a 95.6 percent increase over the four-year period, indicating a rapid expansion in US-bound exports.
Meanwhile, trade with Uganda has demonstrated steady and consistent expansion over the same timeline. In 2023, exports to Uganda were valued at Sh48.83 billion, increasing to Sh49.64 billion in 2024 and further rising to Sh54.01 billion in 2025. By the March to July 2026 period, Kenyan exports to Uganda reached Sh60.54 billion, showcasing a stable growth trajectory.
Although Uganda consistently maintained a higher share of Kenyan goods compared to the US from 2023 through 2025, the accelerated growth in US shipments during the March to July 2026 period altered this dynamic. American total export values surpassed those of Uganda, standing at Sh63.59 billion against Uganda's Sh60.54 billion. This shift highlights a significant change in Kenya's export landscape.
The growth in exports to both the US and Uganda underscores the diversification and resilience of Kenya's trade sector. The rapid expansion in US-bound exports, in particular, suggests that Kenyan businesses are increasingly tapping into international markets. This trend is likely to have positive implications for Kenya's economy, including potential increases in foreign exchange earnings and job creation.
The data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics also points to the competitive dynamics between Kenya's exports to Uganda and the US. While Uganda has traditionally been a key market for Kenyan goods, the surge in US-bound exports indicates that Kenyan businesses are successfully exploring new markets. This diversification can help mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on regional markets.
As Kenya continues to navigate the complexities of global trade, the growth in exports to both Uganda and the US presents opportunities for further economic development. Policymakers and businesses will likely focus on sustaining this growth momentum, exploring new markets, and enhancing the competitiveness of Kenyan goods in the international arena.
Key points
- American-bound exports expanded rapidly, rising by 95.6 percent to hit Sh63.59 billion between March and July 2026.
- Exports to Uganda stood at Sh48.83 billion in 2023, climbing to Sh60.54 billion by March to July 2026.
- US-bound exports surpassed those of Uganda in the March to July 2026 period, standing at Sh63.59 billion against Uganda's Sh60.54 billion.
