The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has put 44 counties on notice for rain between Saturday night, October 31, and Sunday evening, November 1, with thunderstorms expected across a wide stretch of the country. The department released its daily forecast at 3 pm on Saturday, with the outlook running from 9 pm Saturday to 9 pm Sunday. Counties listed in the warning include Mombasa, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nakuru, Narok, Kisumu, Kisii and Nairobi, among others.
Moderate rain is forecast for seven counties, defined by the department as between 5 and 20 millimeters within a 24-hour period. Those counties are Tana River, Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Makueni and Kericho. Tana River is set to receive moderate rain on Saturday night and into the morning, while Taita-Taveta, Garissa and Makueni are forecast to have it overnight. Kitui faces moderate showers from overnight through Sunday morning, with Embu expected to see its heaviest rainfall in the morning hours.
Kericho stands out as the county most likely to experience a combination of moderate showers and thunderstorms, forecast for Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected across 29 counties at various points during the period, spanning the coast, Ukambani, the Mt Kenya region, the Rift Valley and western Kenya. Several of these entries are listed as "likely" or carry a qualifier of "a chance of" thunderstorms rather than a definitive prediction.
Kisumu, Kisii, Nyamira, Migori and Siaya are among western counties where showers and thunderstorms are expected across several places. In Nairobi, Saturday night will bring partly cloudy skies with light showers, giving way to light rain breaking into sunny intervals on Sunday morning, before light showers and thunderstorms become likely over a few areas in the afternoon.
Counties in the far north, including Mandera and Marsabit, are expected to largely escape the rain and remain under partly cloudy to sunny conditions. The department has additionally flagged strong southerly to southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots over sections of Marsabit and Turkana.
On the temperature front, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Turkana will be the warmest, with highs reaching 35°C. Nyandarua will record the coolest conditions, with a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C. Nairobi is forecast to remain between 17°C and 28°C throughout the period.
The department also published rainfall data recorded between 9 am on October 30 and 9 am on October 31. Kyamatu station logged the highest total at approximately 130 mm, followed by Makayaa at about 115 mm, Kaliakatune at roughly 103 mm and Wengeni at around 102 mm. Under the department's classification, any total exceeding 50 mm within 24 hours qualifies as "very heavy" rain.
Key points
- 44 counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, are on notice for rain and thunderstorms from Saturday night to Sunday evening.
- Seven counties are forecast to experience moderate rain, defined as between 5 and 20 millimeters within a 24-hour period.
- Strong southerly to southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots are expected over sections of Marsabit and Turkana.
