According to Lieutenant General Adel Al-Umda, former Deputy Director of the National Defense College at the Egyptian Military Academy for Higher Studies and Strategic Studies, Iran has successfully prevented the US from converting its military superiority into a quick political and strategic decision. The Strait of Hormuz is a prime example of this. Al-Umda noted that the US has not achieved a decisive victory yet due to the differing nature of their forces.
The US relies on technological superiority and precision strikes, while Iran adopts a strategy of attrition, increasing the cost of war using ballistic missiles, drones, small boats, naval mines, and continuous threats to navigation. The geography of the Strait of Hormuz plays to Iran's advantage, as the narrow waterway and concentrated shipping lanes make it easier for Iran to raise the stakes of navigation.
On September 21, the number of cargo ships crossing the strait during the weekend dropped to 17, compared to 37 in the previous week and around 125 ships per day before the war. This decrease highlights the impact of Iran's strategy on global trade and the economy. The war has become closely tied to the global economy, with the Strait of Hormuz previously serving as a passage for around a fifth of the world's oil.
Al-Umda emphasized that the US's military superiority does not guarantee permanent control. The US can strike missile launch sites, destroy facilities and boats, and remove mines, but it faces a different challenge in ensuring the strait's safety continuously. Even after clearing the shipping lanes, Iran can attempt to re-lay mines or threaten ships with other means, making the task ongoing rather than a single decisive blow.
Iran's strength in the Strait of Hormuz is evident through three key indicators. Firstly, Iran continues to pose a threat to navigation, with the US warning of ongoing risks in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. Secondly, naval mines have become a low-cost strategic weapon, forcing the US to dedicate significant military efforts to detection and removal.
The issue of the Strait of Hormuz has become a bargaining chip, with Iran proposing to reopen the strait within seven days in exchange for certain conditions on September 25. Although US President Trump rejected the proposal on September 26, the fact that it became a main topic of negotiations highlights the strategic value of Iran's naval capabilities.
However, it is essential to note that this does not constitute a complete Iranian victory, as the US Central Command states that its forces have kept the main shipping lanes open and assisted commercial ships in transporting over 900 million barrels of oil since May. The US also claims to have cleared the main lanes of mines, demonstrating the ongoing dynamics in the region.
Key points
- Iran's military strategy has prevented the US from achieving a swift political and strategic victory in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The geography of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's use of low-cost naval mines and drones have allowed it to pose a significant threat to US naval superiority.
- The Strait of Hormuz has become a crucial bargaining chip in negotiations between Iran and the US.
