Houthi rebel forces have seized control of the Yemeni port of Mokha and Mayyun Island, overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strategic move gives Iran's proxy force nearly complete control of Yemen's Red Sea coast, with Tehran now having a chokehold on around 12% of global trade passing through the waterway. The Houthis' control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has significant implications for global trade and oil supplies.
The Houthis' seizure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait occurred as BRICS leaders assembled in New Delhi for their 18th annual summit. BRICS, a group of emerging economies formed in 2006, comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with additional members including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Indonesia. The bloc represents 49.5% of the global population, 40% of global GDP, and 26% of global trade, but the conflict in the Middle East has exposed deep divisions within the group.
The New Delhi declaration, issued after the summit, made no mention of the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Yemen, or the Houthis, and did not address shipping, maritime security, or freedom of navigation. This omission is significant, given the Houthis' control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which leaves Saudi Arabia exposed. Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline, built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, terminates on the Red Sea coast, which the Houthis now overlook.
Egypt, which depends on revenue from the Suez Canal, is also affected by the Houthis' actions. The shipping traffic that underpins this income decreased significantly in early 2024 due to an earlier Houthi campaign against shipping lanes in the Red Sea and has struggled to recover since. The latest Houthi advances are unlikely to improve the outlook on maritime traffic, which insurers have already treated as high-risk for months.
The Houthis' control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has significant implications for China and India, the world's largest oil importers. Both countries need the Strait of Hormuz open to keep global oil and gas prices low and rely on it as a trade route. In contrast, Russia, whose exports travel by other routes, is the one BRICS member whose economic outlook improves as these Iranian-controlled chokepoints tighten.
Russia and China have been accused of supporting the Houthis, with Russian personnel in Sana'a providing technical and targeting support for attacks on Red Sea shipping. Most weapons smuggling to the Houthis is now apparently routed through Chinese companies, and a satellite firm tied to China's military has been accused of providing intelligence used against commercial vessels.
The divisions within BRICS, exposed by the Houthis' control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, are eroding the bloc's claim to speak for the global south. The rapid expansion of BRICS' membership has imported unresolved conflicts, with key members and partners at serious loggerheads. The bloc's inability to speak with one voice on the situation in the Middle East has raised questions about its credibility as a pole of a multipolar order.
Key points
- Houthi rebels seize control of Yemeni port, exposing divisions in BRICS
- BRICS' expansion has imported unresolved conflicts, eroding its credibility
- Houthis' control of Bab el-Mandeb Strait has significant implications for global trade and oil supplies
