The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has released the final list of candidates for the 2027 general elections, showing 1,301 candidates vying for 109 Senate seats. This translates to an average of 11-12 candidates per seat across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The list, which is almost final, indicates that many sitting senators will not return to the Senate.
A total of 52 serving senators are not listed for re-election, indicating that they will not contest the elections unless their parties explore the windows provided by the Electoral Act 2026. Furthermore, not all 57 serving senators who made the list have a guarantee of winning the polls, implying that the turnover in the 11th Assembly will increase. The elections are scheduled for January 16, 2027, leaving little time for changes.
The Electoral Act 2026 provides for withdrawal of candidates, allowing them to withdraw their candidature by notice in writing signed by them, together with a sworn affidavit, delivered personally to their political party. The party must then convey the withdrawal and affidavit to INEC not later than 90 days to the election. This provision offers a limited opportunity for the 52 senators not listed to rekindle their hopes.
Some senators are not returning not because they failed to secure tickets but because they are aspiring for other offices, such as the governorship seat of their states. In Ogun State, Senator Ademola Solomon Olamilekan will exit the Senate, having secured the governorship ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Similarly, former governor Gbenga Daniel won't return for the Ogun-East seat as governor Dapo Abiodun will contest the poll in Daniel's place.
In some states, all three current senators secured tickets and have hopes of returning in 2027. In Lagos State, Senator Adetokumbo Abiru, Senator Adebule Idiat Oluranti, and Senator Sanni Eshilokun have return tickets and chances of being part of the 11th Assembly. A similar situation is seen in Ekiti, Akwa Ibom, and Borno States, where sitting senators have secured tickets.
The turnover in the Senate has been significant in recent years. In the 7th Assembly (2011-2015), about 76 senators failed to return to the 8th Assembly (2015-2019), representing the highest turnover in recent years. In the 8th Assembly, 41 senators did not return to the 9th Assembly (2019-2023), while in the current 10th Assembly, 55 senators couldn't return.
The final turnover figure for the 2027 elections remains uncertain, but it is clear that there will be significant changes in the Senate. With at least 57 serving senators contesting the polls, but no guarantee of winning, the stage is set for a new crop of lawmakers to emerge. The elections will be a crucial test for the senators seeking re-election and those vying for new seats.
Key points
- At least 52 serving senators will not contest the 2027 elections.
- 57 serving senators have secured tickets for the 2027 elections, but their chances of winning are uncertain.
- The turnover in the Senate has been significant in recent years, with 76 senators failing to return in the 7th Assembly and 55 in the 10th Assembly.
