The planet is currently undergoing a sequence of exceptional heatwaves, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reporting that the past 12 years have been the hottest ever recorded. The four most recent years occupy the top four spots in this ranking. According to data from January to September 2026, the Earth's surface temperature has risen by approximately 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, with this anomaly expected to increase by the end of the year due to El Niño's warming effects.
El Niño, which has been strengthening since August, is expected to reach its maximum intensity between October and December 2026. This phenomenon typically adds 0.1 to 0.2°C to the global average annual temperature. However, its effects extend beyond heat, also potentially leading to droughts, heatwaves, and extreme precipitation, impacting crops, water resources, and food security. The WMO has warned that El Niño could become the most intense episode ever observed, continuing to influence global climate until early 2027.
The world's oceans, which absorb much of the atmosphere's excess heat, are reaching unprecedented temperatures. In 2026, ocean surface temperatures set monthly records, while the average sea level reached its highest ever recorded level. This marine overheating threatens ecosystems, endangers numerous species, and reduces the oceans' capacity to store carbon dioxide. It also contributes to more intense tropical storms and accelerated ice melting, exacerbating sea-level rise risks.
The melting of glaciers continues at a concerning rate. In 2025, global glaciers lost over 400 billion tons of ice, equivalent to about 1 millimeter of sea-level rise. The WMO estimates that this loss is equivalent to filling five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second for an entire year. This marks the fourth consecutive year that all 19 major glacial regions have recorded a decrease in mass.
The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño could push at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. The most significant disruptions are expected between October and December 2026, but their effects on agricultural calendars, harvests, and food prices may persist until early 2028. A report by the International Fund for Agricultural Development estimates that El Niño could cost the global economy $11,000 billion.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has cautioned that an unprecedented El Niño event is colliding with a planet already overheated by human-induced climate change. In his address at the opening of COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, Guterres urged leaders to act with a sense of urgency. The conference dedicated its first day to agriculture, focusing on financing and climate change adaptation for rural communities in developing countries.
As the world grapples with the converging effects of El Niño and climate change, experts stress the need for immediate action. With the global climate crisis intensifying, it remains to be seen how leaders and policymakers will respond to the escalating situation. One thing is certain: the consequences of inaction will be severe and far-reaching, affecting millions of people worldwide.
Key points
- El Niño is expected to reach its maximum intensity between October and December 2026.
- The past 12 years have been the hottest on record, with 2026 seeing record-breaking ocean surface temperatures.
- El Niño could push at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
