President John Mahama's plans for Ghana's national airline to explore routes to South America and the Caribbean have sparked debate about the potential passenger market and traffic data supporting the expansion. During bilateral talks with Suriname's President Jennifer Geerlings-Simons in New York on September 23, 2026, President Mahama indicated that connectivity with the Caribbean and South American region could form part of the future route network of Ghana's national carrier.
The proposal is not new, as President Mahama and Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness agreed to accelerate work on a Bilateral Air Services Agreement in August 2026, facilitating direct flights between Accra and Montego Bay. However, a key question remains: how many passengers currently travel between Ghana and South America and the Caribbean, and is that traffic sufficient to support direct routes? The Ghana Civil Aviation Authority's 2025 international aviation statistics show 2,539,034 international passenger movements, but do not separately identify South America and the Caribbean.
The absence of specific data on South America and the Caribbean raises concerns about the government's passenger-demand analysis for these markets. A viable long-haul route requires sufficient passenger traffic, appropriate aircraft capacity, sustainable load factors, and revenues capable of covering operating costs. The government and prospective strategic partner may face questions about detailed route studies, including projected passenger numbers, expected load factors, flight frequencies, aircraft requirements, operating costs, and projected revenues.
Ghana has faced heightened scrutiny over international cocaine trafficking, with several major cases linked to the country since 2025, including the seizure of over 3.3 tonnes of cocaine in Cape Coast and 73 cocaine slabs concealed in wooden artefacts at Kotoka International Airport. South America is a major source region for cocaine, making aviation security a crucial consideration for new direct air links with the region.
The recent drug cases do not establish a connection between the proposed national airline and narcotics trafficking, but raise questions about Ghana's existing aviation and border-security systems. The systems and controls accompanying new routes must be robust enough to prevent exploitation by organised criminal networks, including passenger screening, baggage checks, cargo inspection, and intelligence-sharing among agencies responsible for border and aviation security.
The commercial and security questions are separate but important aspects of the proposed expansion. Detailed country-level passenger data and underlying feasibility studies are needed to independently assess the size of the market for Ghana's proposed direct air links with South America and the Caribbean. The central test for the proposed national airline will be whether the routes can attract enough legitimate passenger and cargo traffic to operate sustainably while maintaining strong aviation security.
Until detailed route-level passenger projections and feasibility studies are made public, it remains difficult to assess the viability of the proposed routes. The government and prospective strategic partner must address concerns about passenger demand, aviation security, and the potential for exploitation by organised criminal networks. The proposed national airline's success will depend on its ability to operate sustainably while maintaining strong aviation security and attracting legitimate passenger and cargo traffic.
Key points
- The proposed national airline's expansion to South America and the Caribbean raises questions about passenger demand and aviation security.
- Ghana has faced heightened scrutiny over international cocaine trafficking, with several major cases linked to the country since 2025.
- Detailed route-level passenger projections and feasibility studies are needed to assess the viability of the proposed routes.
