The Democratic Alliance (DA) may have an edge in forming a coalition in Tshwane, according to recent polls. The metro has been a stronghold for the DA-led coalitions since the 2016 local government election, with the exception of an eight-month period where it was taken under administration. Currently, Tshwane is run by an ANC-EFF-led coalition that includes ActionSA. The polls suggest that small parties, including the Patriotic Alliance (PA), may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the upcoming local elections.
Five recent polls held between June and October show the DA in first place and the ANC in second. However, the polls vary in their allocation of seats to other parties. The DA has been allocated between 30-40% of the vote, while the ANC has been allocated around 20-30%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and ActionSA have been allocated smaller percentages, but their seats could be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.
The polls suggest that the DA-FF+ coalition has a few more seats than the ANC-EFF coalition, and ActionSA is the deciding factor that could set up either coalition. In some scenarios, a DA-ActionSA-FF+ coalition could have a clear majority, while in others it would need a boost from smaller parties. The ANC-EFF-ActionSA coalition would likely need help from smaller parties to achieve a majority.
The News24/Sabi poll puts the current ANC-EFF-ActionSA-PA coalition within reach of the majority threshold, leaving it just three seats shy of a ruling coalition. These seats would have to come from smaller parties. If the DA and ActionSA reconciled, a DA-ActionSA-FF+ coalition would also need seats from the same pool of parties.
The Ipsos poll demonstrates how both the ANC and DA will have to work to build a majority coalition. The poll allocates far too many seats to "other parties", even when the FF+'s seats are subtracted from the total. This has much to do with Ipsos's methodology, which includes the shares of respondents who may not vote or who haven't made a choice.
ActionSA's role in future coalitions might shrink due to recent controversies, including hundreds of residents falling ill from contaminated water. The current coalition partners are blaming each other and taking their eyes off the campaign work. This could hurt ActionSA's chances and allow the DA to pull ahead.
The DA-FF+ coalition might have a bit more momentum than the ANC-EFF-PA one, but the extra seats could be statistical noise. According to the polls, ActionSA remains the deciding factor, but its influence may be reduced. The spectre of a DA-ANC coalition also lurks in the background, but it is unclear if either party would be willing to work with the other.
Key points
- The DA has an edge in forming a coalition in Tshwane, according to recent polls.
- ActionSA remains the deciding factor in determining the outcome of the election.
- Smaller parties, including the PA, may play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the upcoming local elections.
