According to maritime classification society Lloyd's, the global container shipping industry has seen a surge in new ship orders, reaching nearly 15 million equivalent units (TEU). Despite an increase in orders for medium-sized ships this year, most of the contracted capacity is for ships with a capacity of over 10,000 TEU. This expansion poses a risk of oversupply, particularly from 2027 onwards.
The top 10 shipping lines currently operate a combined fleet of 29.34 million TEU and have confirmed orders for an additional 10.85 million TEU, representing 37% of their current capacity. MSC leads the list in both operated capacity and confirmed orders, with 7.44 million TEU in operation and 2.91 million TEU on order. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Cosco follow closely, with significant capacities and orders.
Among the top shipping lines, Cosco has the highest ratio of orders to operated capacity at 52.4%, followed by Evergreen at 42.9%, CMA CGM at 39.3%, and MSC at 39.1%. Maersk's ratio stands at 35.6%, while the rest of the group ranges from 20.5% to 33.3%. These figures compare nominal operating capacity to confirmed orders but do not account for potential changes in fleet composition.
The expansion is not limited to the largest shipping lines, as smaller companies like RCL, Zhonggu Logistics, Kawa Shipping, Hai An Transport, and OVP Shipping also have significant orders exceeding their current capacity. Conversely, 46 of the top 100 global shipping companies have no ships on order, although this does not necessarily mean they are not planning to adjust their fleets.
Lloyd's report highlights the need for fleet renewal, particularly in regional transportation, and the importance of ensuring capacity and enhancing networks that combine large ships with complementary shipping services. The report notes that larger container ships can distribute fuel, crew, and capital costs across more units, making them more efficient.
Maersk's recent order for 26 ships with a capacity of 18,600 TEU each, totaling 483,600 TEU, exemplifies the industry's focus on fleet renewal and expansion. The ships will be equipped with dual-fuel engines capable of using liquefied natural gas. Maersk's emphasis on flexibility in deployment across its network underscores the strategic importance of these new vessels.
Despite the potential for oversupply, market analysts like John Monroe note that increased capacity does not necessarily translate to lower prices or more available space for importers. Factors such as congestion at ports like Shanghai and Ningbo, as well as shipping lines' strategies to prioritize higher-priced cargo, contribute to the complex dynamics of the global shipping market.
Key points
- The global container shipping industry faces a potential capacity risk from 2027 due to a surge in new ship orders.
- The top 10 shipping lines have confirmed orders for an additional 10.85 million TEU, representing 37% of their current capacity.
- Despite potential oversupply, market analysts warn that increased capacity may not lead to lower prices or more available space for importers.
