Egyptian military expert Dr. Hisham Helby, a consultant for the Military Academy for Higher Studies and Strategic Studies, has provided an analysis of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that the American and Iranian narratives regarding the situation in the strait are contradictory. Each side presents a narrative that serves its interests. Dr. Helby suggests evaluating the situation based on other indicators related to ship traffic and oil prices.
According to Dr. Helby, various sources monitoring ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz report varying numbers of vessels. Some sources indicate that only 6 or 7 ships are passing through, while others estimate the number to be between 20 and 30 vessels. These numbers fluctuate daily. Dr. Helby emphasizes that the crucial aspect is comparing these numbers to the pre-war levels of maritime traffic. Before the conflict, approximately 130 to 140 ships traversed the strait daily.
The significant difference between current and pre-war ship traffic levels serves as a vital indicator of the decline in maritime navigation. Dr. Helby highlights that this decline is substantial and noteworthy. Furthermore, he points out that oil prices are another essential indicator. He notes that the decrease in oil prices, despite continued reports of ships passing through the strait, does not align with the American narrative.
In contrast, Dr. Helby suggests that the indicators align more closely with the Iranian narrative. He emphasizes that his stance is not in support of or opposition to either side but rather in favor of peace, calmness, and the restoration of security in the region. Dr. Helby also observes that oil prices have experienced fluctuations, but they remain at elevated levels.
The prices tend to decrease temporarily following American statements about control, victory, and entering a peace process. However, these decreases are limited, and prices eventually rise again. Dr. Helby's analysis is based on his expertise as a military expert and consultant for the Military Academy for Higher Studies and Strategic Studies.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil supplies, and any disruptions to maritime traffic can have significant impacts on the global economy. Dr. Helby's comments provide insight into the complexities of the situation and the various factors at play. His analysis highlights the need for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains a pressing concern for the international community. Dr. Helby's expertise and analysis contribute to the ongoing discussion about the situation and its implications. The Egyptian military expert's comments underscore the importance of continued monitoring and assessment of the situation.
Key points
- Dr. Hisham Helby, an Egyptian military expert, has analyzed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
