In a recent revelation, Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Dayan disclosed that Israel had considered launching a preemptive air strike against the Syrian army in the Golan Heights. The plan was discussed during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir and Chief of Staff David Elazar. However, Meir opposed the military's decision, citing political concerns that Israel should not appear as the aggressor before the international community, particularly the United States.
Dayan agreed with Meir's assessment, stating that even if the air strike had been carried out, it would not have changed the course of the war with Arab countries. He also expressed concerns that mobilizing more reserve forces and launching a preemptive strike could have undermined Israel's hopes for comprehensive support from the United States. According to Dayan, the proposed air strike was aimed solely at Syrian air bases deep within Syria and could not have been executed before noon.
The Israeli Defence Minister acknowledged that Egypt's strategic deception plan had been highly effective, catching Israeli intelligence and analysis off guard. While Israeli intelligence had picked up on the movements of Russian experts and their families from hotels and residences in Damascus to Damascus airport, they did not anticipate an Egyptian attack. The strategic location of the Golan Heights, which offers absolute control over occupied territories, had raised concerns within Israeli intelligence.
Following discussions with Meir, a decision was made to mobilize between 100,000 and 120,000 troops, evacuate children and women from the Golan Heights, and forego the preemptive air strike. Israel also issued a warning to Egypt and Syria through the United States, using its ambassador in Washington and a meeting between Meir and the US ambassador in Tel Aviv.
Dayan revealed that he had opposed a preemptive strike, aligning with Meir's cautious approach. Instead, Israel opted for a passive precautionary measure, evacuating civilians, including children and women, from settlements in the occupied Golan Heights. This decision was made in anticipation of an expected Arab attack, based on Israeli intelligence analysis.
Dayan cited two reasons for his agreement with Meir's opposition to a preemptive strike. Firstly, he was concerned that, as in previous instances, Arab declarations of intent might not have translated into action, resulting in the depletion of Israeli resources. Secondly, Meir believed that if Israel could demonstrate that it was not the aggressor, the United States would provide necessary support in the event of war.
The decision not to launch a preemptive strike ultimately allowed Egypt to execute its strategic deception plan, which contributed to the surprise attack on Israel on October 6, 1973. Dayan's revelations provide insight into the complex decision-making process within Israel's leadership during the lead-up to the Yom Kippur War.
Key points
- Egypt's strategic deception plan prevented Israel from launching a preemptive air strike.
- Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Dayan agreed with Prime Minister Golda Meir's cautious approach, citing concerns about appearing as the aggressor and depleting Israeli resources.
- Israel's decision not to launch a preemptive strike allowed Egypt to execute its strategic deception plan, contributing to the surprise attack on Israel on October 6, 1973.
