The Ukombozi Alliance, born out of the rebranding of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, has emerged as the latest entrant in Kenya's politics. Formed through the efforts of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, Azimio was a coalition of over 26 political parties. Its rebranding as Ukombozi Alliance comes as the country edges closer to the 2027 General Election. The new coalition is positioning itself as the latest opposition vehicle, with former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka at the helm.
Kenya's history is marked by numerous political coalitions that have formed to challenge the establishment or capture State power. The Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), Jubilee Alliance, National Super Alliance (NASA), Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), and Kenya Kwanza have all had varying degrees of success. These coalitions have often been formed by politicians and parties with a common objective, but their unity has been short-lived.
One of the earliest coalitions was FORD, formed by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Masinde Muliro, and Charles Rubia to challenge President Daniel arap Moi in the 1992 General Election. However, the coalition split into FORD-Kenya and FORD-Asili, led by Jaramogi and Kenneth Matiba, respectively. Moi went on to defeat the divided opposition in Kenya's first multiparty election. This pattern has repeated itself with subsequent coalitions, including NARC, which won the 2002 election and ushered Mwai Kibaki into State House.
The Jubilee Alliance, formed in 2013 by Uhuru and President William Ruto, proved formidable, defeating Raila Odinga in the 2013 presidential election. However, their victory was later annulled by the Supreme Court in 2017. The coalition's success was short-lived, as it eventually fractured. In 2022, Uhuru and Raila joined forces under Azimio, while Ruto built the Kenya Kwanza coalition and won the presidency.
Kalonzo Musyoka is confident that Ukombozi can succeed where previous alliances have stumbled. He claims that the coalition will defeat President Ruto by over 70 per cent, provided they remain united as opposition. However, Ruto has dismissed the opposition's prospects, arguing that it lacks a clear agenda for the country. Ruto stated that he will defeat Ukombozi early in the morning, and there is nothing they will do.
Political analyst Herman Manyora believes that Ukombozi could face the same pressures that have fractured previous alliances. He notes that competing interests are often at the heart of such fallouts. While Uhuru may provide stewardship during the coalition's formative stages, Manyora cautions that this alone cannot guarantee its survival beyond the 2027 election.
The 2027 contest is about more than defeating Ruto for Ukombozi; it is also a test of whether Kenya's latest political marriage can survive the election that brought it together. Ukombozi faces a formidable challenge in the form of President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) working with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The coalition's success will depend on its ability to remain united and present a clear agenda for the country.
Key points
- Ukombozi Alliance faces challenges in uniting opposition against President Ruto.
- Kenya's history of political coalitions has been marked by short-lived unions.
- Ukombozi's success will depend on its ability to remain united and present a clear agenda for the country.
