The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has maintained its lead over the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 presidential election, but with a significantly reduced margin. According to a recent SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker, the NDC garnered 42.2% of the votes, while the APC secured 25.5%, resulting in a 16.7 percentage-point lead. This represents a considerable shift from the May survey, where the NDC enjoyed a substantial 46.4-point lead.
The latest survey, which covered 1,103 respondents across 12 states and the Federal Capital Territory, spanning the six geopolitical zones, revealed a striking urban-rural divide in voter sentiment. Urban respondents overwhelmingly backed the NDC, with 49.5% of the votes, compared to 20.9% for the APC. Conversely, rural and small-town respondents favoured the APC, with 35.2% of the votes, against 27.6% for the NDC.
Petrol prices have emerged as a significant factor influencing voter sentiment, with 18.2% of respondents citing it as a major national problem. The government's performance on this issue received a low rating of 1.69 out of four, and the relevant government policy was rejected by 67.4% of respondents, against 19.2% support. This development could potentially impact the APC's fortunes, given its current control of the government.
The survey also found that national sentiment has improved, with those saying Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction decreasing from 79.5% to 56.8%. President Bola Tinubu's net favourability rating improved significantly, from -58.5 to -3.3, while Peter Obi remained the strongest national figure, with a rating of +52.8. These developments suggest that the electorate's perception of the government's performance is gradually improving.
The NDC's lead is no longer a landslide, according to SBM Intelligence. The research firm stated that its previous survey showed higher turnout substantially boosting NDC support, but the latest findings indicate only about a six-point movement in the two-party margin across the plausible turnout range. This suggests that the opposition can no longer rely solely on high turnout to guarantee its victory.
The changing voter sentiment and narrowed lead could have implications for the APC's strategy ahead of the 2027 presidential election. With the NDC's lead now within a more manageable range, the ruling party may seek to capitalize on the urban-rural divide and petrol price concerns to regain ground. However, the APC still faces significant challenges in reversing the NDC's lead.
As the 2027 presidential election approaches, both parties are likely to intensify their campaigns, focusing on key issues such as petrol prices, economic development, and governance. The SBM Intelligence Voter Sentiment Tracker provides valuable insights into the electorate's mood, highlighting the need for both parties to adapt their strategies to resonate with voters.
Key points
- The NDC leads the APC by 17 points ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
- The urban-rural divide and petrol prices are significant factors shaping voter sentiment.
- National sentiment has improved, with President Bola Tinubu's net favourability rating increasing significantly.
