The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has retained a lead over the All Progressives Congress (APC) in voter preference ahead of the 2027 presidential election, according to a survey by SBM Intelligence. The NDC has 42.2 percent of stated voting preference, compared with 25.5 percent for the APC. This represents a significant shift from SBM's first survey in May, when the NDC recorded 57.4 percent against 11 percent for the APC.
The gap between the two parties has narrowed considerably from 46.1 percentage points in May to 16.7 percentage points in the latest survey. SBM Intelligence surveyed 1,103 respondents across six geopolitical zones, describing the findings as materially different from the picture presented by its first tracker. The research firm said the lead is real but no longer a landslide.
The survey identified a changing relationship between voter turnout and opposition support. In May, the NDC's support increased from 31.7 percent under low turnout to 64.9 percent under high turnout. However, the pattern has now reversed, with the NDC performing marginally better under lower turnout. Expanding the electorate brings in voters from two geopolitical zones that have shifted towards the incumbent APC.
A pronounced divide has emerged between urban and rural or small-town voters. Among urban respondents, the NDC recorded 49.5 percent, compared with 20.9 percent for the APC. The pattern is reversed among rural and small-town respondents, where the APC recorded 35.2 percent, against 27.6 percent for the NDC. Urban respondents were also more pessimistic about the direction of the country and more critical of the government's performance.
The survey expanded the field to include Rabiu Kwankwaso and Rotimi Amaechi as presidential figures in their own right. Kwankwaso retains a strong personal base in the North-West, while Amaechi was identified as the least popular of the five nationally. The research firm said testing the politicians separately was important because the opposition is now divided across two political platforms.
The survey recorded a marked improvement in the general national mood compared with May. The proportion of respondents who said Nigeria was moving in the wrong direction fell from 79.5 percent to 56.8 percent. This shift is linked to easing inflation, a stronger naira, and the retreat in petrol prices from their May peak. President Bola Tinubu's net favourability rating also improved from minus 58.5 to minus 3.3.
Petrol has emerged as a major political concern, with 18.2 percent of respondents identifying it as a national problem. The government received its worst performance rating on petrol policy, scoring 1.69 out of four. Respondents rejected the government's position on petrol policy by 67.4 percent to 19.2 percent. This issue could become increasingly prominent as political parties seek to translate economic concerns into campaign promises.
Key points
- The NDC still leads the APC in voter preference, but the gap has narrowed significantly.
- Urban and rural voters have different preferences, with the NDC leading in urban areas and the APC in rural areas.
- Petrol has emerged as a major political issue, with respondents rejecting the government's position on petrol policy.
