It's been a year since Madagascar's government was toppled in a military power grab, and the country is still waiting for change. Graffiti in the capital city Antananarivo reads "Thank you, Capsat," a reminder of the decisive role the army unit played in the protests that led to the ousting of then-president Andry Rajoelina. The protests, led by Gen Z activists, began on September 25 and culminated in Rajoelina's departure on September 26, 2023, aboard a French military plane.
The United Nations reported at least 22 people were killed in the first days of the protests, some by security forces and others in violence sparked by criminal gangs and looters. With Rajoelina gone, the military installed Capsat commander Colonel Michael Randrianirina as "President of the Refoundation of the Republic of Madagascar" with a promise of elections within two years. However, one year on, young activists who spearheaded the demonstrations say there is little evidence of any "Refoundation" in the impoverished Indian Ocean island.
The Gen Z movement, which initially focused on chronic water and electricity cuts, says its basic demands still haven't been met. Mihary Rakotondravelo, a prominent Gen Z figure, told AFP that he had a power cut before the interview and that water was scarce, even in the city centre. Rakotondravelo's group is represented on national consultation committees involved in drafting a new Constitution, which the military government has committed to having in place ahead of presidential elections pledged for late 2027.
The proposals for the new Constitution are to be presented in May before being put to a referendum, according to a timeline announced after the 16-nation regional group SADC called in August for a "return to constitutional normalcy". The new leadership has also started legal proceedings against Rajoelina's inner circle, including a key ally, wealthy businessman Mamy Ravatomanga, who is due to face trial on September 24 for the 2025 transfer of Boeing aircraft to Iran in violation of US sanctions.
A court recently sentenced a former top security official, general Richard Ravalomanana, to 10 years' hard labour for his role in last year's bloody crackdown. The sentencing was welcomed by the Gen Z movement, which had been increasingly wary of the government after the arrests in April of several people involved in scattered protests over the slow pace of reforms. The arrests were on charges of "endangering state security" that allow for 15 days in detention.
Transparency International vice-chair Ketakandriana Rafitoson expressed concerns about the government's repressive measures, saying it's "very easy to pull that trigger... to crack down". She described it as a kind of "mental terrorism". Researcher and author Adrien Ratsimbaharison noted that the new government has forged relations with Russia, receiving several arms deliveries from Moscow in a highly publicised military partnership that includes training by Africa Corps.
The ruling colonel has asked France to persuade the International Monetary Fund to release 180 million dollars in blocked funds, according to the French National Assembly foreign affairs committee chairman, Bruno Fuchs. The funds were frozen after the government used subsidies to shield consumers from fuel price increases that would have been devastating in a country where around 80 percent of the population lives on less than $2.15 a day. The Volobe hydroelectric dam project, which involves French electricity giant EDF, must also be approved after months of deadlock.
Key points
- The military government has committed to having a new Constitution in place ahead of presidential elections pledged for late 2027.
- The Gen Z movement's basic demands for improved water and electricity supply remain unmet.
- The new government has forged relations with Russia, receiving arms deliveries and training from Africa Corps.
