On March 18, 2025, President Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, suspending the governor, deputy governor, and state House of Assembly members, and appointed Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas as administrator. This intervention was necessitated by a prolonged political crisis and security concerns in the state. The move demonstrated the significant relationship between Wike's political structure in Rivers and the Tinubu presidency.
Wike, a former governor of Rivers State, has announced his intention to deliver Rivers State and the Federal Capital Territory for President Tinubu in 2027. This raises questions about who controls the political machinery that would deliver Rivers for Tinubu - the APC or Wike's political network. The Rainbow Coalition, a new political alliance, potentially provides Wike with an answer. As Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Wike's current position makes his political calculations even more unusual.
Wike's Rainbow Coalition could demonstrate that President Tinubu does not have to rely exclusively on APC governors to mobilize presidential support. Conversely, if the governors prevail in insisting that all presidential mobilisation must run through the APC, Wike's independent political architecture would have less room to operate. This dispute matters, as President Tinubu must navigate this complex situation.
Wike can maintain his PDP membership while supporting Tinubu, as presidential, governorship, and legislative elections are separate contests. However, APC leaders insist on a "Top to Bottom" strategy, creating an obvious contradiction from the perspective of party loyalty. Wike's position is that his loyalty in the presidential contest is personal and political rather than determined by party affiliation.
President Tinubu now occupies a delicate position, with Wike as a useful political ally who can reach politicians and constituencies outside the APC. At the same time, APC governors are indispensable, controlling the formal structures of the governing party across the states. Tinubu must avoid allowing the dispute to become a permanent rupture and find a way to make both Wike and the governors useful to his 2027 project.
The shift from G5 to Rainbow Coalition is an evolution in Wike's political strategy, from internal resistance within the PDP to external mobilisation through a cross-party network. The effectiveness of the Rainbow Coalition will depend on organisation, personalities, candidate selection, and how much space the APC leadership is prepared to give it. Wike's Rainbow Coalition aims to mobilise a strong political base for himself and his supporters beyond 2027.
The battle lines are becoming clearer, with APC governors saying support for Tinubu should go through the party, while Wike claims his commitment is to Tinubu's presidency, not necessarily to every APC candidate. This fundamental disagreement over who owns political loyalty in an election will shape the future of Nigerian politics.
Key points
- Wike forms Rainbow Coalition to mobilize support for Tinubu
- Dispute between Wike and APC governors over party loyalty
- President Tinubu must navigate complex situation to avoid permanent rupture
