The US military has withdrawn from Iraq, marking the end of a 20-year engagement. This departure fulfills an agreement made in 2024 by the Biden administration to reduce US military presence in the country to zero. However, the withdrawal has raised concerns about a potential security vacuum that could benefit Iran and its allies in the region. The US exit comes as Iran's influence in Iraq has grown significantly since the US-led invasion in 2003.
The withdrawal of US forces was expected to coincide with the disarmament of Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq. However, these groups have largely ignored or defied calls to lay down their arms. The deadline for their disarmament has been pushed back to June 2027. The US departure has been hailed as a victory by Iran and its Iraqi allies, who now wield considerable influence in the country. The Iranian-backed groups have been responsible for numerous attacks on US bases in the region, particularly after Israel's offensive in Gaza in October 2023.
Iran has cultivated ties with Iraqi opposition groups for decades, including the Islamic Al-Dawa party and the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. These organizations now hold significant power in the country. The Badr organization, a powerful Iranian-backed militia, was created in Iran in the 1980s with the support of the Revolutionary Guard. It fought alongside Iran during the Iran-Iraq war and has since become a major player in Iraq's political and security landscape.
The Badr organization has transformed from a militia in exile to a significant actor in Iraq's politics and security. After 2003, thousands of its fighters returned to Iraq and it began to operate as a major player in the country's politics and security. Iran has built a network of relationships across Iraqi politics, ministries, religious networks, and armed groups. The fragmented political system established in 2005, based on ethnic and sectarian quotas, has provided fertile ground for Iran to expand its influence.
The rise of the Islamic State (ISIS) in 2014 further solidified Iran's influence in Iraq. Tehran provided direct military support to Iraqi forces and armed groups fighting against ISIS. Thousands of Iranian soldiers joined the battle, which was framed as a sectarian struggle between Shiite Muslims and Sunni extremists. Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, played a key role in Baghdad's defense. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shiite militias aligned with Iran, were formed and played a crucial role in defeating ISIS.
The PMF was integrated into Iraq's official security architecture in 2016, but some of its most powerful factions have maintained close ties to Tehran while developing their own political and economic interests. Iran has built a network of interconnected political, military, and economic relationships in Iraq, some operating outside the state and others within it. This complex web of relationships explains why it is difficult to dismantle Iranian influence in Iraq.
The economic ties between Iran and Iraq are also significant, with the two countries sharing a long border and substantial trade flows, including energy, goods, and pilgrims. Iraq has become a major market for Iranian exports and has long relied on Iran for its gas and electricity supplies. These economic links are such that US sanctions can complicate but not necessarily break them.
Key points
- The US withdrawal from Iraq has created a security vacuum that Iran and its allies may exploit.
- Iran has built a complex network of relationships across Iraqi politics, ministries, and armed groups, making it difficult to dismantle its influence.
- The economic ties between Iran and Iraq are significant and hard to break, even with US sanctions.
