The United States has withdrawn its forces from Iraq, leaving behind a security vacuum that has raised concerns about the potential for Iranian-backed militias to expand their influence and the resurgence of the Islamic State group. The withdrawal, which was agreed upon in 2024 under US President Joe Biden and carried out by current President Donald Trump's administration, marks the end of a 23-year military presence in the country. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, but triggered upheaval and chaos, culminating in the rise of Islamic State.
The departure of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, but some worry that the country's security forces, which were trained and funded by the US, are still not equipped to protect the country. A total of 4,500 American forces died in more than 20 years of war in Iraq. Iraqi analyst Jassim al-Bahadli, who advises the security forces, noted that the lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous. The US withdrawal has been celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, who see it as a triumph for their "axis of resistance" of allied armed groups across the region.
Iran, which wields significant influence in Iraq through proxies, has cast the US withdrawal as a major victory. The country's ultimate aim is to force American forces to leave the entire Middle East. However, some analysts are concerned that the absence of a Western military presence could embolden Iranian-backed militias and give them more room to maneuver. Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis noted that these groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating their presence within key institutions.
The US withdrawal also raises concerns about the potential for Islamic State fighters to regroup and launch new attacks. Despite being defeated in 2017, the group still retains a sleeper cell network, and some Iraqi security officials worry that the US pullout could give new life to the militants. US troops had been providing Iraqi security forces with critical intelligence on Islamic State movements, aerial surveillance, and reconnaissance. The US military had been working closely with Iraqi forces to defeat the group, and its withdrawal could leave a significant gap in their capabilities.
The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and subsequent occupation of the country led to the installation of a Shi'ite-led government and a years-long counterinsurgency campaign. The US military returned to Iraq in 2014 to help defeat Islamic State, and the two countries have maintained a close security relationship since then. However, the US withdrawal has raised questions about the long-term sustainability of Iraq's security institutions and their ability to protect the country from external threats.
Some Iraqi security officials, including retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, have expressed concerns about the potential for Islamic State to obtain armed drones or improvised explosive drones. They note that Iraq still lacks sufficient air defense capabilities to counter such threats effectively. The US withdrawal has also raised questions about the future of the US-Iraq security relationship and the potential for future cooperation between the two countries.
The US withdrawal from Iraq is part of a broader shift in the country's security landscape. The US military has been involved in a conflict with Iran this year, and 7 of the 18 US service members listed as killed were in Iraq. The last US service member to die in Iraq was an army sergeant who was killed during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil in July. The US withdrawal from Iraq has significant implications for the country's future and the broader region.
Key points
- The US withdrawal from Iraq has raised concerns about the potential for Iranian-backed militias to expand their influence and the resurgence of the Islamic State group.
- The departure of US forces has left a security vacuum that Iraqi security forces may not be equipped to fill.
- The US withdrawal has been celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, who see it as a triumph for their "axis of resistance" of allied armed groups across the region.
