The US has been actively engaged in discussions with Libya, aiming to push Tripoli and Benghazi towards a political, economic, and security arrangement that would reunify the country's institutions and pave the way for national elections. According to Massad Boulos, advisor to Donald Trump on Arab and African affairs, there have been notable advancements in coordination between eastern and western factions. Boulos called for further progress, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach.
Recent agreements have been adopted to support this dynamic, including the August 30 political agreement that provides for the reorganization of the High Electoral Commission and the adaptation of the electoral framework. The eastern-based House of Representatives has since approved the agreement. Additionally, the "4+4" mechanism has led to an accord that Boulos considers ready for implementation. Turkey has also contributed to reviving the "6+6" joint committee, tasked with working on electoral laws.
Washington, Ankara, and the UN have multiple channels of dialogue between the two camps to advance the unification of institutions and security structures. Egypt plays its own role in this process, maintaining close relations with the eastern faction while keeping contact with Tripoli. Egypt officially supports Libya's territorial unity, a Libyan-led solution, and the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries. Egypt seeks to preserve a special place in any future security architecture, given its border with Libya and significant interests in the eastern region.
Algeria and Tunisia defend a similar approach, with some differing concerns. Both countries have maintained a consultation mechanism with Egypt on Libya to support a Libyan-led solution, preserve the country's unity, and limit external interference. This framework allows them to make their voices heard as American, European, and Middle Eastern initiatives multiply. For Algeria, the Libyan issue is primarily a security concern, given its long southern border.
Algeria fears that a fragmented or heavily militarized Libya would facilitate trafficking and the circulation of armed groups across the Sahel region. Algeria's stance is based on several constant principles, including no military solution, a process led by Libyans under UN auspices, elections as a political outcome, and the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries. Algeria has traditionally been closer to Tripoli than to the eastern faction and is monitoring Washington's and Ankara's growing roles.
Tunisia faces concrete challenges, including transborder commerce, the economy of southern regions, and the stability of the Ras Jedir post, all of which depend directly on the situation in Libya. Tunisia maintains a neutral stance towards both factions and prioritizes Libyan-Libyan dialogue. This neutrality allows Tunisia to preserve relations with all actors. In the tripartite mechanism, Algeria provides its political weight, while Tunisia maintains a balancing position.
The Turkish role in this equation is significant, as it remains Tripoli's primary military partner while intensifying its dialogue with Washington. Turkey has contributed to reviving the "6+6" committee and has pragmatically rebalanced its position between eastern and western Libya, including reopening its consulate in Benghazi and meetings with key eastern leaders. European countries, including Italy, France, and the UK, pursue their own objectives, focusing on migration, energy, security, and diplomatic interests.
Key points
- The US and its allies are pushing for a unified Libya through a combination of diplomatic and security arrangements.
- Algeria and Tunisia are working together to support a Libyan-led solution and preserve the country's unity.
- The control of Libya's oil revenues remains a critical issue in the country's reconciliation process.
