A report released by the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Monday stated that 2026 is expected to be one of the four hottest years on record. This projection is largely attributed to the ongoing strong El Niño event, which is contributing to a continued streak of record-breaking global temperatures that has lasted over a decade. The report's findings coincide with the upcoming 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey.
According to the WMO's "State of the Climate" report, which incorporates nine different datasets, the period from January to September 2026 saw a global average temperature 1.47°C higher than the pre-industrial era average. This trend is expected to continue and possibly intensify due to the El Niño event. The report also noted that each of the past 12 years, including 2026, has been among the 12 warmest years on record since systematic records began in 1850.
The WMO report highlights that the El Niño phenomenon is a significant factor in the current temperature trends. El Niño events tend to increase global temperatures, and the current event is particularly strong. This has raised concerns among climate scientists and policymakers, who are gathering for COP31 to discuss strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change.
The report's findings are consistent with those of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, which recently announced that 2026 is likely to become the second calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, as stipulated in the Paris Agreement. This threshold is considered a critical benchmark in the global effort to combat climate change.
The continued rise in global temperatures has significant implications for weather patterns, ecosystems, and human societies. Rising temperatures can lead to more extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall. These events can have devastating impacts on communities, economies, and the environment.
The WMO report serves as a timely reminder of the urgent need for concerted global action to address climate change. As world leaders and negotiators gather for COP31, they will be informed by the latest scientific data and projections, including those presented in the WMO report. The report's findings are expected to inform discussions on climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.
In light of these projections, countries are expected to intensify their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy sources. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO report's findings underscore the importance of meeting these goals and avoiding the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
Key points
- The strong El Niño phenomenon is driving the current temperature trends, with 2026 expected to be one of the four hottest years on record.
