Uganda's exit from Somalia jolts security sovereignty

Uganda's announcement to withdraw its troops from Somalia has sent shockwaves through the country's security partners, donors, and diplomatic circles. The Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) began withdrawing from Somalia on October 30, following a decision made by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Chief of Defence Forces. This move has raised questions about Somalia's ability to secure its own territory and protect the gains made against the insurgency.

The withdrawal has jolted Somali elders, businesspeople, civil society groups, and political elites, who are concerned about the potential consequences of the UPDF's departure. According to Samira Gaid, a Somalia political and security analyst, the timing of the withdrawal is particularly concerning, as it comes at a time when Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud had just held talks with his Ugandan counterpart, Yoweri Museveni. The withdrawal plan emerged in the same week, underscoring the apparent failure by Mogadishu to meet demands from one of its longest-standing security partners.

In Barawe, a strategic coastal town in Lower Shabelle, the implications of the UPDF's departure are already being felt. Ugandan troops are preparing to hand over a large forward operating base and several outposts to the Somali National Army (SNA). However, residents are concerned about the potential for Al-Shabaab to launch major attacks. Barawe was liberated from Al-Shabaab in October 2014, but the town has never been entirely free of the group's threat.

The Somali National Army's force-generation programme has produced an estimated 10,000 to 12,000 personnel, roughly equivalent to the troop strength of the AU mission. However, the challenge is not simply replacing departing soldiers. Somali forces will have to secure a wider stretch of territory and defend positions previously held by better-equipped foreign contingents. According to Omar Mahmood, Horn of Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group, rapidly taking over all positions occupied by foreign troops would be a tall task for Somalia.

The UPDF's withdrawal presents a test of whether Somalia can finally take responsibility for its own security. However, the question is whether national forces can assume that responsibility without opening fresh opportunities for Al-Shabaab. During the 2024-25 security reversals, Al-Shabaab recaptured several positions handed over to Somali forces, exposing weaknesses in the army's ability to hold territory after international troops departed.

Somali military leaders and political elites are emphasising security sovereignty, pointing to the growth of the national army and its increasingly national orientation as evidence that the country can consolidate the gains made against the insurgency. However, Gaid says troop numbers alone are a misleading measure of readiness. "Worse than the numbers is the capacity and capabilities the AU forces have," she said.

The withdrawal also has a political dimension, with some sections of the Somali population regarding the AU presence as an infringement on national sovereignty rather than a security guarantee. On November 3, a Somali commentator shared a video purporting to show Mogadishu residents celebrating the departure of Ugandan troops. The UPDF's departure will be completed by the end of 2027, with the wider contingent leaving Somalia as well.

Key points

• The withdrawal of Ugandan troops from Somalia raises concerns about the country's ability to protect security gains made over the past decade.
• The Somali National Army faces challenges in securing a wider stretch of territory and defending positions previously held by better-equipped foreign contingents.
• The withdrawal has a political dimension, with some sections of the Somali population regarding the AU presence as an infringement on national sovereignty.