Uganda's economic growth strategy has received a significant boost with the introduction of the Tenfold Growth Strategy, aiming to transform the country from a factor-driven economy to a productive, export-oriented, technology-enabled, and value-adding economy. The ambitious plan targets growth from $53 billion to $500 billion by 2040, effectively doubling GDP every five years. This strategy is crucial for Uganda's economic development, as it seeks to address the challenge of converting good ideas into sustained economic outcomes.
The Tenfold Growth Strategy focuses on higher savings and investment, rapid export growth, stronger human and physical capital, and a dramatic increase in value-added exports. According to the World Bank, Uganda's real GDP grew by 6.3 per cent in FY2024/25, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing to expansion. However, the World Bank also cautions that too much economic activity remains concentrated in low-productivity and climate-vulnerable agriculture and informal employment. Therefore, the next leap must be qualitative, not merely quantitative.
To achieve this ambitious goal, the government has developed the ATMS architecture, which focuses on Agro-industrialisation, Tourism, Mineral-based industrial development, and Science, Technology, and Innovation. However, ATMS must become more than a policy acronym; it must become Uganda's economic operating system. The Secretary to the Treasury, Dr. Ramathan Ggoobi, notes that Uganda has developed many good policies, but the missing policy is often the policy on implementation.
The government technocrats deserve considerable appreciation for the quality of policy architecture already developed. The task now is to match that intellectual capital with an equally powerful execution culture. This requires a national delivery compact, where every ATMS intervention has a clear owner, funding source, implementation timetable, measurable KPI, independent monitoring, and consequence management. The focus should shift from measuring development primarily by money allocated to measuring it by capital absorbed, projects completed, exports generated, jobs created, productivity increased, and taxes collected.
The private sector must be central to this transformation, with the National Development Plan (NDP IV) anticipating approximately 30.4 per cent of its Shs 593.6 trillion resource requirement from the private sector. Government must crowd in, not crowd out, private capital through Public Private Partnerships, blended finance, development finance, patient capital, targeted tax incentives, and guarantees with strict fiscal guardrails.
Uganda must also dramatically improve capital absorption, as an unspent development budget is not prudence if a critical road, irrigation scheme, industrial park, or digital infrastructure remains unfinished. Externally funded project absorption is explicitly identified as an implementation priority in the Tenfold Strategy. The tax base must expand alongside the economy, and digitalisation, e-invoicing, formalisation, better property and land information, customs intelligence, and AI-enabled compliance can broaden the base without simply increasing the burden on compliant taxpayers.
The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be a force multiplier in Uganda's economic growth. The country should embrace open-source AI models, build national data capabilities, and deploy AI in sectors such as agriculture, tax administration, health, education, and tourism. However, innovation requires guardrails, including cybersecurity, data protection, ethical standards, human oversight, responsible procurement, and clear accountability. Chambers of commerce, industry associations, banks, universities, and professional bodies should become economic mobilisation platforms, not merely advocacy institutions.
Key points
- The Tenfold Growth Strategy aims to grow Uganda's economy to $500 billion by 2040.
- The strategy focuses on export-oriented, technology-enabled, and value-adding sectors.
- Implementation and a national delivery compact are crucial to achieving the strategy's goals.
