The Tunisian inflation rate has risen to 5.6% in September 2026, a 0.8-point increase from August, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics. This marks the end of a gradual decline in inflation observed between 2023 and 2025, following a peak in late 2022. Expert Ridha Chkoundali attributes this increase to a crisis of supply, rather than demand, citing a challenging business climate and bureaucratic hurdles that discourage investment.
The inflation rate is largely driven by rising food prices, which have increased by 8.4% over the past year. Unregulated products have seen significant price hikes, including poultry (16.5%), fresh fruits and vegetables (15.4%), and red meat (14.6% for lamb and 13% for beef). Additionally, education expenses have risen sharply, with preschool and primary education costs increasing by 6.4%, and secondary education costs by 6.0%.
According to Ridha Chkoundali, the surge in education expenses does not reflect an improvement in living standards, but rather a forced shift towards private education due to the decline in public education quality. He emphasizes that inflation is primarily a supply-side crisis, fueled by a unfavorable business climate and exacerbated by frequent power outages and energy disruptions.
The disruptions have interrupted production cycles, damaged fresh agricultural products, and broken cold storage chains, leading to increased production costs. These costs are then passed on to consumers. Chkoundali argues that the only demand-side factor at play is the state's debt to the Central Bank, used to finance budget deficits, which has created a monetary mass without corresponding goods.
The cumulative inflation rate from 2015 to 2026 has reached 98%, effectively halving the purchasing power of the Tunisian dinar over the past eleven years. This erosion of purchasing power has significantly impacted Tunisians. The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) has maintained its key interest rate unchanged, despite the inflationary pressures.
Ridha Chkoundali believes that the BCT's policy is impassable, as it attributes inflation to overconsumption, while ignoring the structural supply crisis in the Tunisian economy. He argues that neither freezing nor raising interest rates can curb price increases, particularly for essential goods. The BCT's decision to maintain its key rate has been criticized, as it may not effectively address the underlying causes of inflation.
The current economic situation in Tunisia is complex, with multiple factors contributing to the rising inflation rate. The government's ability to manage the economy and address the supply-side crisis will be crucial in stabilizing prices and restoring economic growth. The situation will require careful consideration and effective policy measures to mitigate the impact of inflation on Tunisian households.
Key points
- The inflation rate in Tunisia has risen to 5.6% in September 2026, driven by a supply-side crisis and rising food and education costs.
- The cumulative inflation rate from 2015 to 2026 has reached 98%, effectively halving the purchasing power of the Tunisian dinar.
- Expert Ridha Chkoundali argues that the Central Bank of Tunisia's policy is impassable, as it ignores the structural supply crisis in the Tunisian economy.
