The National Meteorological Institute of Tunisia has released its seasonal forecast for October, November, and December 2026, predicting that temperatures will exceed reference rates across the country. According to the institute, this period typically marks a transitional phase towards autumn and winter, characterized by a gradual decrease in temperatures and an increase in rainfall, particularly in the north and central eastern regions.
The reference rates for this period, based on data from 1991 to 2020, indicate that temperatures usually range from 12 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and from 16 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south. The lowest temperatures are typically recorded at Tala station. The institute's forecast suggests that temperatures will be higher than these reference rates during the upcoming period.
Regarding rainfall, the institute's forecast does not indicate a clear or dominant trend across the country for October, November, and December 2026. However, the forecast suggests that some areas may experience higher-than-usual rainfall. According to reference rates, rainfall during this period typically ranges from 122 to 443 millimeters in the north and coastal regions, from 55 to 102 millimeters in the central western regions, and from 30 to 97 millimeters in the south.
The institute's forecast also provides specific temperature and rainfall ranges for each month. For October, temperatures are expected to range from 17 to 23 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and from 22 to 24 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month typically ranges from 38 to 84 millimeters in the north, with the highest levels recorded at Tabarka station.
In November, temperatures are expected to range from 11 to 18 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and from 15 to 19 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month is typically more abundant in the north, ranging from 39 to 96 millimeters, and reaching up to 160 millimeters in Tabarka.
For December, temperatures are expected to range from 7 to 14 degrees Celsius in the north and central regions, and from 11 to 15 degrees Celsius in the south. Rainfall during this month is typically more abundant in the far north, exceeding 100 millimeters and reaching 161 millimeters in Tabarka.
The National Meteorological Institute's forecast provides valuable insights into the expected weather patterns for the upcoming period, which can help inform decision-making in various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and transportation. The institute's data is based on historical trends and modeling, and is intended to provide a general indication of expected weather conditions.
Key points
- Tunisia's National Meteorological Institute predicts higher temperatures for October, November, and December 2026, exceeding reference rates across the country.
- The institute's forecast suggests that some areas may experience higher-than-usual rainfall during the upcoming period.
- The expected weather patterns can help inform decision-making in various sectors, including agriculture, water management, and transportation.
