Tunisia's economy has shown relative resilience to global economic shocks, despite ongoing pressures from geopolitical tensions, the energy crisis, and disparate sectoral performances. According to Minister of Economy and Planning Samir Abdelhafidh, the country's economy has continued to function in a challenging international and regional environment. The minister emphasized the importance of implementing the development plan, supporting public enterprises, and strengthening the foundations of the social state.
The global economy is facing interconnected challenges, including the ongoing war in the Middle East and its impact on international trade, as well as continued pressure on energy markets and forecasts of tightened monetary policies. These factors affect the investment climate and make it difficult to predict economic prospects. The minister noted that these developments impose additional challenges on economies linked to external markets, due to increased uncertainty about production and financing costs, as well as the evolution of global demand.
Abdelhafidh attributed Tunisia's economic resilience to the country's ability to adapt to external changes, as well as the cohesion of its productive fabric and diversification of growth sources. He emphasized the state's commitment to its social role, while supporting public enterprises to recover their productivity and improve their performance. The minister also highlighted the importance of diversifying the productive base to limit dependence on a single sector and mitigate the impact of declines in certain activities.
Despite relative resilience, Abdelhafidh noted that Tunisia's economy remains exposed to external crises and sensitive to fluctuations in international demand and energy costs. The country's vulnerability to challenges related to water and electricity resources also poses significant risks. Strengthening adaptation capacity and improving the investment climate are crucial to supporting growth and preserving economic stability.
The minister reported that Tunisia's external demand, particularly from the European Union, is expected to grow, according to statistics from the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies. This growth in external demand is essential for supporting export activities, industrial production, and services linked to international markets. Maintaining the competitiveness of exporting enterprises is also vital to benefiting from this trend, amid international competition and fluctuating production, transport, and financing costs.
Abdelhafidh estimated that maintaining a growth rate of 3.3% for 2026, as projected in the state budget, requires consideration of international, regional, and national developments, particularly the impact of the energy crisis. He warned that conserving this hypothesis without revision could lead to an inaccurate representation of economic performance. The minister based his assessment on preliminary results for the first half of the year, which showed growth of 2.6% in the first quarter and 2.3% in the second quarter.
The results for the second quarter are preliminary, and the third quarter's performance may be affected by challenges during the summer season, including energy shortages and tourist activity. Abdelhafidh emphasized the need to update economic forecasts in light of evolving conjunctural indicators and the impact of external shocks on production, investment, and demand.
Key points
- Tunisia's economy shows resilience amid global uncertainty, but vulnerabilities persist.
- The country's growth rate is projected at 3.3% for 2026, but this forecast requires revision in light of evolving economic indicators.
- Strengthening adaptation capacity and improving the investment climate are crucial to supporting growth and preserving economic stability.
