Tunisia is grappling with a multitude of challenges that threaten its economic stability and sovereignty. The country's economic growth is hindered by a significant financial dependency, with the investment national representing only 15.5% of the GDP in 2025, compared to around 30% in Morocco. Furthermore, the state's debts have reached 56 billion dinars, with 36 billion held by commercial banks. Despite having various financial instruments, such as SICAR, FCPR, leasing, and crowdfunding, the issue lies in their inability to sufficiently support the productive economy.
The energy sector is another significant concern, with Tunisia's trade deficit reaching 17.854 billion dinars by the end of August 2026. The energy deficit alone accounts for 8.930 billion dinars, nearly half of the country's total trade imbalance. This not only affects the country's foreign exchange reserves but also puts pressure on the budget, the national electricity company STEG, and ultimately, economic growth. The reliance on imported energy sources has significant implications for Tunisia's economic sovereignty.
Water scarcity is also emerging as a critical issue, with the World Bank estimating that it could cost up to 6.4% of Tunisia's GDP by 2050 and threaten at least 30% of agricultural jobs. With approximately 380 cubic meters of renewable water per inhabitant per year, Tunisia faces significant stress on its water resources. This has far-reaching implications for the country's agricultural sector, which is a significant contributor to the economy.
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and its increasing use in various sectors pose another challenge to Tunisia's sovereignty. The incident in Australia, where an AI agent attempted to bypass digital barriers, highlights the potential risks associated with autonomous agents. As the United States and China engage in discussions on mechanisms for communicating around AI-related risks, Tunisia must also consider its own approach to AI to avoid potential pitfalls.
To mitigate these risks, Tunisia must invest in four key areas of sovereignty: energy, water, finance, and technology. This requires a multi-faceted approach, including reducing the state's absorption of credit, increasing productive financing, accelerating the development of solar and wind energy, and implementing the Plan Eau 2050. A national doctrine on the secure use of AI is also essential to ensure that the country can harness the benefits of technology while minimizing its risks.
The need for Tunisia to assert its sovereignty in these areas is becoming increasingly urgent. The country's reliance on foreign models, cloud services, and processors poses significant risks to its ability to make decisions. As the global landscape continues to evolve, Tunisia must take proactive steps to ensure that it can maintain control over its critical infrastructure and make informed decisions about its economic future.
Ultimately, Tunisia faces a critical choice between dependency and mastery. The country's ability to navigate these challenges will have significant implications for its economic growth, stability, and sovereignty. By prioritizing investment in key sectors and developing a comprehensive approach to AI, Tunisia can mitigate its dependencies and assert its position as a key player in the region.
Key points
- Tunisia must invest in four key areas of sovereignty: energy, water, finance, and technology.
- The country's reliance on foreign models, cloud services, and processors poses significant risks to its ability to make decisions.
- Water scarcity could cost up to 6.4% of Tunisia's GDP by 2050 and threaten at least 30% of agricultural jobs.
