Despite facing a political hole in the US, President Donald Trump's brand of conservative populist nationalism is thriving globally. The recent shock win of Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil's presidential election has bolstered Trump's project of remaking the Western Hemisphere in his image. This trend is also evident in Europe, where populist right-wingers are gaining momentum.
In Europe, the radical anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is emerging as a national force as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government struggles. France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen is leading the polls ahead of next year's presidential election. These parties, although not clones of Trump, share a similar populist ethos and are inspired by his rise to power and endurance.
Many far-right parties have adopted protectionist economics and emulated Trump's hostility to elites, globalization, and mass immigration. The strength of conservative populism has prompted leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British counterpart Andy Burnham to adopt rhetoric and programs designed to blunt the right and reinforce moderate government.
In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro's surprising ascent follows that of Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing insurgent who won Colombia's presidential election earlier this year. Conservative governments friendly to the White House now rule in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Chile, and Honduras. Trump's influence is also evident in Argentina, where President Javier Milei benefited from a $20 billion currency swap offer made conditional on voters supporting his party.
Trump's impact on global politics is also seen in his support for like-minded leaders and parties. He has backed the AfD on social media and has a history of projecting leadership over global populism. However, his efforts to save Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from falling power were unsuccessful.
A counter-populist movement is beginning to organize, with Carney emerging as an informal leader of Western democracies. He has warned that Canada can show how diversity can be a strength, not a weakness, at a time of rising populism and ethnic nationalism. Burnham has also used his speech at the Labour Party annual conference to address the issue.
The rise of populist movements has significant implications for global politics. Trump's violent political shifts seem to be stirring a separate counter-reaction, especially in the US, as seen in the success of democratic socialists in some midterm primaries. The outcome of Brazil's runoff election and the future of populist movements globally remain to be seen.
Key points
- Trump's brand of populism continues to inspire like-minded leaders and parties globally.
- Populist right-wingers are gaining momentum in Europe, with parties like AfD and Le Pen's National Rally leading the polls.
- A counter-populist movement is beginning to organize, with leaders like Carney and Burnham adopting rhetoric and programs to blunt the right.
