The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominates the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia, has declared a state of "full-blown war" with the federal government. According to TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa, heavy artillery attacks have been reported in neighbouring regions, with the rebels attempting to take control of the town of Yallo, near the border of Tigray. The conflict has raised concerns of a regional conflagration, with analysts warning of potential involvement from Eritrea and Sudan.
The recent escalation in violence follows months of rising tensions between the federal government and the TPLF. The two sides have accused each other of triggering a return to open conflict with attacks this week. On Wednesday, the TPLF seized control of three airports from federal police and launched attacks into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara. A humanitarian source in Afar reported heavy artillery attacks by the rebels, with Tigrayan forces fighting alongside local armed groups.
The conflict has its roots in a devastating civil war fought between 2020 and 2022, which killed more than 600,000 people, according to African Union estimates. The TPLF ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The Pretoria Peace Agreement ended the war, but clashes resumed in late 2025, with the federal government launching drone strikes in Tigray and massing troops at the regional border.
The TPLF's strategy appears to be focused on cutting off supply lines and ultimately threatening the capital, Addis Ababa. Regional expert Kjetil Tronvoll noted that the rebels' stated aim is to take Addis, but their tactical manoeuvres to reach the city are not yet known. One of the few routes to the capital is through the Amhara town of Weldiya, while the offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti.
The TPLF has forged an anti-government alliance with five other armed groups, including the Fano insurgent group in Amhara. This development shows the changing dynamics from the war of 2020-2022, when the Fano and Eritrea both fought with the government against the Tigrayans. The government in Addis Ababa has yet to comment on the latest escalation.
The conflict risks drawing in other countries, with Eritrea reportedly supporting the Tigray rebels. Analysts warn that Eritrea fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea. The Sudanese army is also angry with Ethiopia over its alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces that it is fighting in Sudan, and some fear it, too, could be drawn into the conflict.
The humanitarian situation in the region remains dire, with around one million people still displaced from the last war and many aspects of the peace agreement unfulfilled. Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepares for renewed conflict. The international community is watching closely, as the conflict threatens to destabilize the region.
Key points
- The Tigray rebels have declared a state of "full-blown war" with the Ethiopian government.
- The conflict has raised concerns of a regional conflagration, with potential involvement from Eritrea and Sudan.
- The humanitarian situation in the region remains dire, with around one million people still displaced from the last war.
