The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominates the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia, has confirmed that it is in a state of "full-blown war" with the federal government. According to TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa, heavy artillery attacks have been reported in neighbouring regions. The conflict began on Wednesday when the TPLF seized control of three airports from federal police and launched attacks into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.
The conflict between the federal government and the TPLF has been escalating for months. The two sides accuse each other of triggering a return to open conflict with attacks this week. The TPLF's actions have raised concerns that the conflict could turn into a regional conflagration. Analysts say the Tigray rebels have support from Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade its territory to gain access to the Red Sea.
A humanitarian source in Afar reported heavy artillery attacks by the rebels as they attempted to take control of the town of Yallo, near the border of Tigray. The TPLF has already gained control of Abala, on the Tigray-Afar border, and several other Afar towns, though this could not be confirmed. The group's actions suggest it is planning a similar strategy to the civil war in 2020-2022, seeking to cut off supply lines and ultimately threaten the capital, Addis Ababa.
The TPLF is fighting alongside an insurgent group known as the Fano in Amhara. They forged an anti-government alliance with five other armed groups over the weekend. This development shows the changing dynamics from the war of 2020-2022, when the Fano and Eritrea both fought with the government against the Tigrayans. The government in Addis Ababa has yet to comment on the latest escalation.
The conflict has raised concerns about its potential impact on the region. The Sudanese army is also angry with Ethiopia over its alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces that it is fighting in Sudan, and some fear it, too, could be drawn into the conflict. Regional expert Kjetil Tronvoll said the TPLF's stated aim is to take Addis Ababa, but its tactical manoeuvres to reach the city are not yet known.
One of the few routes to the capital is through the Amhara town of Weldiya. The offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which supplies almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel. The region has not recovered from the last war, with around one million people still displaced and many aspects of the peace agreement unfulfilled.
Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepares for renewed conflict. The federal government has since launched drone strikes in Tigray and massed troops at the regional border. The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, eventually triggering the civil war.
Key points
- The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has confirmed it is in a state of "full-blown war" with the Ethiopian federal government.
- The conflict risks turning into a regional conflagration, with Eritrea and Sudan potentially drawn into the conflict.
- The TPLF's actions suggest it is planning to cut off supply lines and ultimately threaten the capital, Addis Ababa.
