Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has experienced a remarkable surge in popularity, tying with President William Ruto at 31% as the preferred presidential candidates among Kenyans, according to a TIFA opinion poll released on Thursday. TIFA Research analyst Tom Wolf expressed his astonishment at Sifuna's rapid rise, noting that he has never seen anything like it before in his 20 years of conducting surveys. Sifuna's popularity has doubled since June, and Wolf attributes this growth to the senator securing a political party.
Wolf highlighted that Sifuna's numbers rapidly increased once he unveiled the Equitable Party in early October, which was later rebranded to Linda Mwananchi Movement Party. This move removed any doubt about Sifuna's bid for the presidency, giving his supporters confidence that he will be on the ballot. According to Wolf, Sifuna's rise can be attributed to his new party, which has enabled people to view him as a potential candidate. In June, Sifuna did not have a party and was still a dissident within ODM.
The TIFA poll also revealed that President Ruto gained 9% in popularity, with his known quality and deputy contributing to his solid figure. However, Wolf warned that the opposition figures, including Sifuna, could experience a change in fortunes once they settle on their flagbearer. Those who miss out could decamp and eat into Sifuna's support. The poll put Sifuna and Ruto tied at 31%, with Kalonzo Musyoka dropping from 25% in August 2022 to 9%, while Fred Matiang'i and Rigathi Gachagua polled 5% and 4%, respectively.
Wolf emphasized that much of the presidential vote depends on down-ballot mobilization, from governors to MCAs, not just convincing people to vote for a particular candidate but also ensuring they turn out to vote. He encouraged people to focus on trends rather than individual figures, as the direction of the polls is crucial. As the election approaches in nine months, Wolf noted that the surveys will get closer to an actual result.
Sifuna's rise has been remarkable, with his popularity doubling in just a few months. Wolf attributed this growth to Sifuna's ability to secure a political party and his subsequent rebranding. The Linda Mwananchi Movement Party has given Sifuna a platform to campaign and mobilize support. Wolf's analysis suggests that Sifuna's popularity will continue to grow, but it remains to be seen how the other opposition figures will react.
The TIFA poll also revealed that other potential presidential contenders, including Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, registered 1% in the latest survey. Wolf noted that the polls are not yet conclusive and that the trends are more important than individual figures. As the election approaches, it will be crucial to monitor the shifts in popularity and how the different candidates mobilize their support.
In conclusion, Edwin Sifuna's rapid rise in popularity has been astonishing, with his numbers doubling since June. While there are potential challenges ahead, including the opposition figures settling on their flagbearer, Sifuna's momentum is undeniable. As the election approaches, it will be crucial to monitor the trends and shifts in popularity to get a clearer picture of the outcome.
Key points
- Edwin Sifuna's popularity has doubled since June, rising from 15% to 31%.
- TIFA analyst Tom Wolf attributes Sifuna's rise to his securing a political party.
- The TIFA poll put Sifuna and President Ruto tied at 31%, with other opposition figures trailing behind.
