Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in the United States on September 24, with trade, Taiwan, and technology dominating the agenda. The same issues were discussed during their last meeting in May 2026. The technology element has gained urgency due to rapid developments in artificial intelligence. The meeting may lead to some agreements, but significant progress is uncertain. The two leaders have different priorities and levels of trust.
Trade is the most pressing issue, but also the simplest to resolve. The US and China had agreed to lift export controls on high-end technology and reduce tariffs on Chinese goods nearly a year ago. China had also agreed not to restrict the flow of critical minerals and rare earths to US users. The pact is up for renewal, and both sides are likely to want a continuation of the current arrangement. Some tweaks may be made, but the new deal will likely be similar to the old one.
A proposed Board of Trade to assess non-sensitive US-China business interests may be discussed during the summit. However, details about the institution remain vague. Business leaders will want to know how comprehensive and lasting the arrangements for the board will be. There is still little information on a proposed Board of Investment. The Chinese side has suggested bringing major Chinese CEOs to the summit to match the likes of Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Tesla's Elon Musk.
The issue of Taiwan is a much harder one to solve. Trump has been less willing to commit the US to defending the island if Beijing invades, reasserting Washington's long-held position of strategic ambiguity. China prefers to find methods short of war to bring the island under Beijing's control. The island's January 2028 presidential election may be a more crucial moment for Taiwan's future. The outcome of the election and the next US presidential election may impact Taiwan's status.
Other international issues, such as the war on Iran and China's purchase of Russian oil, may be discussed but are unlikely to lead to significant changes. The US may remind China of new legislation allowing sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. China is expected to express its unhappiness about the war on Iran.
The area of technology, particularly AI, is where both sides will try to make diplomacy catch up with reality. The May summit raised the question of mutual agreement on AI regulation. Both sides agreed that talks in principle about regulation might be possible. On September 20, the US and China proposed a "hotline" to notify each other of AI national security risks.
The competition between the US and China on AI is real, and neither government is willing to make concessions that could advantage the other side. Levels of trust between Washington and Beijing remain very low on the issue. Talks about talks seem the most likely public outcome. The two countries have reasons to discuss AI regulation, including concerns about rogue AI companies and data centers.
Key points
- The US and China are set to discuss trade, Taiwan, and technology during the Trump-Xi summit.
- The meeting may lead to some agreements, but significant progress is uncertain.
- The competition between the US and China on AI is real, and neither government is willing to make concessions.
