Terrorism Deaths Rise Sharply in Nigeria

A recent report by SARI Global, a risk intelligence and security analysis firm, has revealed that terrorists killed at least 835 people in 612 security incidents across Nigeria's 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in October 2026. This represents a 14 per cent rise in incidents and a 42 per cent jump in fatalities compared to September. The report, titled SARI Global's Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for October 2026, highlights a sharp escalation in lethality tracked in recent months.

The report identified armed bandits and insurgents as both the most frequent and deadliest actors in the country for the first time in recent months. Non-state armed actors initiated 221 incidents, causing 480 fatalities, while government-affiliated forces initiated 218 incidents, resulting in 197 fatalities. The report noted that the Armed Conflict category produced 617 of the 835 deaths, with a substantial share being armed-group fighters killed in failed assaults and airstrikes.

The report cited several key incidents that marked a month of broad deterioration, including a market-day massacre in Taraba State, sustained road blockade operations in Zamfara State, and the assassination of a cleric in Katsina State. The Taraba massacre, which occurred on October 23, resulted in 58 deaths, with many more injured, and was described as having a scale and method similar to mass-casualty bandit attacks in the North West.

SARI Global recorded 150 incidents and 234 fatalities in the first week of October, driven by an ISWAP base assault in Kukawa, killings in Momo, and the crash of a Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 aircraft near a naval base in Igbokoda, Ondo State. The fourth week, from October 22 to 28, recorded 123 incidents and 252 fatalities, driven by a siege in Birnin Tudu, the Taraba massacre, and the assassination of a prominent cleric.

The report listed October 1, 2, 8, and 16 as the highest-tempo days of the month. Zamfara was ranked as the most incident-dense state in October, with 69 incidents and 137 fatalities, while Borno State recorded the highest fatality count at 180 deaths from 51 incidents, mostly from fighting between ISWAP and the military around Lake Chad.

Plateau State followed with 65 incidents and 62 deaths, while Katsina, Kebbi, Lagos, Sokoto, Niger, Rivers, and Benue made up the rest of the top 10. The report warned that a busy security apparatus remains no proof of an improving environment, as armed groups simply outpaced it. SARI Global specialises in providing operational data, climate intelligence, and crisis management support for organisations working in volatile environments.

The firm's June and July 2026 reports recorded 882 and 596 incidents respectively, with 792 and 570 deaths. The report's findings highlight the need for continued efforts to address the security challenges in Nigeria.

Key points

• 835 people killed in 612 security incidents across Nigeria in October
• Non-state armed actors were the most frequent and deadliest actors in October
• October saw a 14 per cent rise in incidents and a 42 per cent jump in fatalities compared to September