The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has issued a forecast warning of rain accompanied by thunderstorms in 16 regions across the country over a 10-day period, from November 11 to 20, 2026. The regions expected to receive the rains include Kagera, Geita, Shinyanga, Mwanza, Simiyu, and Mara in the Lake Victoria Basin and western parts of the country. The TMA forecast also indicates that some areas along the northern and southern coasts and the north-eastern highlands will receive relatively little rainfall.
According to the TMA, changes in pressure systems in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are expected to influence the distribution of rainfall across the country during the period. The high-pressure systems of Azores and Siberia in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to continue strengthening, while those of St Helena and Mascarene in the Southern Hemisphere are expected to weaken. This situation is expected to keep part of the rain belt, known as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), further south.
The TMA statement issued on November 11, 2026, notes that sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, off the East African coast, are expected to be above average compared with those in the eastern part of the ocean, near the coast of Indonesia. This temperature difference is expected to strengthen moisture-laden winds blowing from the ocean towards the coastal belt and north-eastern highlands, potentially triggering rainfall-producing systems in those areas.
The forecast indicates that rain accompanied by thunderstorms is expected in some parts of the south-western highlands, including Kigoma, Katavi, Tabora, Rukwa, Songwe, Mbeya, Njombe, and Iringa regions. In the Central Zone, some areas of Dodoma and Singida are expected to receive rainfall, while Arusha, Manyara, and Kilimanjaro are forecast to experience rain accompanied by thunderstorms in isolated areas.
Along the northern coast, rainfall is expected in some parts of Tanga, northern Morogoro, Coast, Dar es Salaam, and the islands of Unguja and Pemba. The TMA forecast also indicates that Mtwara and Lindi regions are expected to receive rainfall in isolated areas, while Ruvuma and southern parts of Morogoro are forecast to experience rain in some areas.
The TMA warning comes as the country is still reeling from the effects of El Niño rains that have caused widespread damage and loss of life in recent months. In October, the rains killed a child and damaged over 400 houses in Mara region, while in other parts of the country, residents are bracing for heavy rains as El Niño raises flood risks.
The TMA has urged residents in the affected regions to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety during the forecasted rain and thunderstorms. The authority has also advised farmers to take advantage of the expected rainfall to boost crop production, while also warning of potential disruptions to transportation and other activities.
Key points
- The Tanzania Meteorological Authority forecasts rain and thunderstorms in 16 regions from November 11 to 20, 2026.
- The rains are expected mainly in the Lake Victoria Basin, western parts of the country, and the south-western highlands.
- The TMA has urged residents to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety during the forecasted rain and thunderstorms.
