A new study by the Climate Impact Lab, a research group involving the University of Chicago, warns that the current El Nino event could become the strongest on record, leading to extreme heat and drought in some regions and heavy rainfall and flooding in others. El Nino is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that can disrupt weather around the world. The study projects that extreme heat linked to the 2026-27 El Nino could cause 451,000 additional deaths worldwide.
The impact of the El Nino event is expected to be concentrated overwhelmingly in the Global South, with Africa's Sahel region projected to experience 66,800 additional heat deaths over the next six months. Nigeria is expected to bear a significant portion of this toll, with 31,400 deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,500 deaths. Other countries, including Indonesia, India, and Brazil, are also expected to experience significant heat-related mortality, with 19,300, 15,800, and 13,300 deaths, respectively.
The United States is also expected to experience heat-related deaths, albeit at a significantly lower rate than developing countries. Researchers forecast around 3,500 additional heat deaths in the US between September and February. The study's findings are based on an analysis of the potential impacts of the El Nino event on global temperatures and mortality rates.
The warning comes after August became the hottest month on record globally, with temperatures averaging 16.96 Celsius (62.53 F). Western Europe also experienced its hottest summer on record, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. This trend is consistent with the study's projections, which suggest that temperatures associated with the current El Nino event offer a glimpse of conditions that could become far more common within the next two decades.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and University of Chicago professor, emphasized the scale of the projected losses, stressing that the figures represented "parents and children, grandparents and neighbors." The study's findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable communities.
The El Nino event is expected to have significant economic and social impacts, particularly in developing countries. The study's findings suggest that the event could have far-reaching consequences for global food security, economic stability, and human well-being. Researchers and policymakers are urged to take immediate action to prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of the El Nino event.
The study's projections are based on an analysis of historical climate data and mortality rates. The researchers used a range of climate models to forecast the potential impacts of the El Nino event on global temperatures and mortality rates. The findings are consistent with previous research on the impacts of climate change, which suggest that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense.
Key points
- The current El Nino event could cause over 450,000 heat-related deaths worldwide.
- The majority of fatalities are expected to occur in developing countries, particularly in Africa's Sahel region.
- The study's findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate the impacts of climate change, particularly in vulnerable communities.
